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高力發表《2022下半年地產市場展望》料市場維持審慎樂觀

疫情拖慢寫字樓和投資市場 倉庫空間需求強勁帶動工廈受捧

 
香港,2022 年 7 月 14 日
— 頂尖的多元化專業服務與投資管理公司高力(納斯達克證交所交易代碼:CIGI;多倫多證交所交易代碼:CIGI)今天發布《高力香港 2022 下半年地產市場展望研究報告》。高力指,雖然本港經濟增長於 2022 上半年較預期緩慢,但預計下半年整體營商氣氛和市場活動將逐步復蘇。

高力香港常務董事劉振江表示:「受年初的第五波疫情影響,本港全年經濟增長有所放緩,但疫情於第二季漸見緩和,商業活動亦開始逐步恢復,我們預計下半年寫字樓市場將主要由租戶物色更優質的寫字樓空間所帶動。隨著投資者進一步消化潛在加息周期的影響,除非社交距離措施進一步收緊,否則我們預料市場投資氣氛將在下半年回升,而抗跌力較強的工業物業亦會繼續成為機構投資者追捧的資產類別。同時,社交距離措施逐步放寬以及即將在 8 月份推出的第二階段消費券將有助推動下半年零售市場的復蘇。」


資料來源:高力香港 2021 年地產市場總結及 2022 年地產市場預測。


資本市場與投資

隨著香港從第五波疫情中逐步復蘇,第二季整體物業投資交易量已由第一季的低位回升,商業物業投資量亦按季增長 52%,但對比 2021 年上半年,今年首六個月的整體投資量仍按年下跌 15%,成交額為 289 億港元。在美國聯儲局宣布加息後,投資者轉趨更審慎的觀望態度,拖慢決策過程,令香港市場復蘇緩慢。

鑑於市場一直積壓對房屋的需求,高力相信住宅發展地皮和共享生活空間將會為本地發展商及基金投資者帶來更多投資機遇,而一向抗跌力強的地區零售亦將持續受投資者追捧。佔第二季投資量 87% 的機構基金及房地產機構會繼續成為下半年投資市場的主要源動力。

高力預期,美國未來的加息走向會進一步加重業主的經濟負擔,市場上有機會湧現更多投資物業的出售及接管個案,刺激2022下半年的交易量。若社交距離措施不再進一步收緊,高力對投資市場前景保持審慎樂觀,成交額按年下跌 5% 的預測維持不變。

高力香港資本市場及投資服務行政董事翟聰表示:「受惠於強勁需求及租賃表現,工業物業如數據中心和冷藏庫設施等將繼續成為機構投資者最熱衷投資的物業類別。我們預料 2022 下半年的交投量將超出上半年。」

下載高力香港2022下半年地產市場展望研究報告|資本市場與投資


寫字樓市場

隨著社交距離措施放寬,寫字樓租賃查詢和睇樓活動亦逐漸恢復,但新寫字樓的出租需求仍然相對疲軟,並於第二季錄得 -176,300 平方呎的淨吸納量,成為自 2021 年以來增長最緩慢的季度,推高整體空置率 0.4個百分點至 11.2%。

受第五波疫情打擊,營商氣氛和勞工市場仍需時恢復,除非本港放寬入境措施為市場引入新需求,否則高力預計下半年的寫字樓租賃市場將不會出現大幅度反彈。下半年將會有 390 萬平方尺全新甲級寫字樓樓面落成,有機會推高年底的整體空置率,並對租金升幅造成壓力。

高力香港商業物業服務主管顏慧萍表示:「新寫字樓樓面供應勢將為租戶帶來更多選擇,從而提升他們的具議價能力。因此,高力預計在今年餘下時間,寫字樓市場將由物色優質寫字樓空間的租戶帶動。同時我們預計 2022 年整體甲級寫字樓的租金將下調 2%,而隨著九龍區的寫字樓租金微升,傳統核心商業區與非核心區域的租金差距將有機會進一步收窄。」

下載高力香港2022下半年地產市場展望研究報告|寫字樓市場


工業物業市場   

第三方物流繼續帶動 2022 年第二季工業物業租賃市場,而電子與冷藏餐飲行業亦有一定需求。隨著今季倉庫供應維持緊張和缺乏新倉庫供應,整體倉庫租金按季錄得 1.1% 增長。第五波疫情導致餐飲營運商與零售商推遲發展計劃,導致 2022 上半年中央廚房營運商或零售商的需求比 2021 下半年相對下降。

網上銷售於 2022 年首五個月按年增長 29%,高力相信電子商貿行業將成為帶動工業物業需求的一大助力。整體而言,如作物流中心用途的工業物業租賃查詢預期會在 2022 下半年上升,預測全年的倉庫租金有望按年增長 3.5%。

高力香港工業物業服務主管陳彪表示:「在投資方面,我們預期會有更多業主或機構投資者與第三方物流、冷藏庫、迷你自存倉和數據中心營運商合作,以長期租約方式洽談以確保有穩定收入。對比起寫字樓和零售物業,我們預計抗跌力較強的工業物業會繼續成為機構投資者最熱門的物業投資類別。我們預測整體倉庫價格全年會錄得5% 升幅。」

下載高力香港2022下半年地產市場展望研究報告|工業物業市場


零售物業市場

第五波疫情讓香港於首季面臨最嚴厲的社交距離措施,為零售市場帶來艱巨考驗。核心區街舖租金於第二季進一步按季下調 0.4%,導致 2022 年上半年的整體租金下跌 2.4%。儘管大部分的零售商持較審慎態度,銀行及國際服裝品牌卻趁機遷至一線街舖。

本地消費仍是香港零售市場的主要推動力,而餐飲業、超級市場、家居生活百貨和新興藥房擴張,將成為租賃市場的主要源動力。另外,商場業主亦需善用客戶酬賓方案(loyalty programs)及高知名度代言人刺激銷售表現和客流量。

高力香港商舖服務主管吳凱寧表示:「展望未來,我們對2022 年下半年市場情緒感到樂觀。隨著 8 月份即將發放第二階段消費券,加上政府正考慮進一步放寬入境人士的隔離要求,下半年消費氣氛相信會持續改善。若未來疫情維持受控,我們預計2022年全年的零售租金預料能回升至5%以內。」

 下載高力香港2022下半年地產市場展望研究報告|零售物業市場

傳媒如欲查詢更多詳情或邀約訪問,請聯絡:

Alex Kaihau
董事 | 市場推廣及企業傳訊 | 香港特別行政區
alex.kaihau@colliers.com
+852 5971 3234

Nora Wong 
高級經理 | 市場推廣及企業傳訊 | 香港特別行政區
nora.wong@colliers.com
+852 2822 0569


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