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Puget Sound Pulse - September 2020

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Local, state, and national indicators showing the relative health of the Puget Sound economy.

Washington’s economic recovery is inextricably tied to the direction of the COVID-19 pandemic. Employment remains dismal, although other indicators show some hope, including rental rate trends (Figure 1). For weeks that ended in July, the state of Washington saw a 480% increase in claims year-over-year, with 127,137 claims compared to 21,922 claims over the same period in 2019. Annual rental rate growth across the Seattle metro has decreased since October 2019, although the rate itself continues to grow, reaching $1,981 in July 2020, according to Zillow. Business confidence is positive for the first time since April 2019 while consumer confidence continues to drop, having decrease every month since December 2019. Continued claims for unemployment insurance dropped the most precipitously in King County, by 3,267 claims, or 3.8% of the total, with Pierce County dropping 1,277, or 3.9% of their total, according to the Washington State Employment Security Department. As an industry, construction rebounded the most impressively, decreasing the number of continuing claims by 5.9%, or 1,122 from early to mid-August and health care/social assistance also performed well over this period, dropping 1,516 continuing claims, or 5.1%. By Western CPI growth remains low but increasing (Figure 2), signaling to the Fed that economic recovery will be protracted until the virus is under control and consumer spending returns to pre-pandemic levels.


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Puget Sound Pulse - September 2020

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Jacob Pavlik

Research Manager

Seattle

Jacob Pavlik joins the Colliers team after working in the Economic Development and Planning departments for the cities of Hillsboro, Oregon and Alexandria, Virginia, respectively.  At Colliers, he leads a team of researchers to  collect, analyze, and synthesize market data for Puget Sound and Portland. He loves the challenge of taking complex data and making it easily digestible for a wide audience. He assists brokers with research specific to their client's needs, including geovisualizatoin and micromarket analysis.

His authentic passion for commercial real estate is seen most clearly when Jacob explores his local urban ecosystem and travels to new cities around the world to see how they function and relate to each other. He likes to see the built environment adapt to the changing needs, desires, and behaviors of the people who populate it. These functions fit perfectly into Jacob's role as Research Manager, telling the story of how commercial real estate in the Pacific Northwest evolves over time.

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