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2022 Q1 Greater Phoenix Retail Market Report

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Q1 2022 Retail Market

The Greater Phoenix Retail market ended the first quarter with the same momentum experienced at year end 2021, with positive net absorption reaching 577,308 square feet. Strong leasing activity has led the market to a decrease in vacancy of 110 bps year-over-year ending at 6.6 percent. 187,526 square feet of new inventory were delivered in the first quarter. Asking rates reached $15.61 per square foot, an increase of 5.8 percent compared first quarter of 2021. 

Key Takeaways
  • Construction nearly doubles in Q1 with 998,732 SF underway 
  • Vacancy declined to record level of 6.6 percent 
  • Rental rates increased 5.8 percent Y-o-Y to $15.61 PSF 
The Phoenix retail market continues to demonstrate strong recovery and growth from the pandemic. As of February 2022, Phoenix metro had increased its labor force by 89,600 employees compared to February 2021, which represents a 4.1 percent improvement. Retail Trade supersector jobs have increased by 6.3 percent, Department Store jobs have increased by 13.7 percent, and General Merchandise jobs increased 9.8 percent over the same period. Leisure and Hospitality has also shown positive momentum with the number of employees increasing by 13.4 percent compared to February 2021, but employment is still down 6.4 percent compared to February 2020.

In the month of March, the number of restaurants that opened outpaced the number of closings by 19 percent. At the end of February 2022, consumer spending has increased by 10.7 percent and retail spending increased 29.5 percent compared to January 2020 throughout the entire Phoenix MSA. The healthy growth of the Phoenix retail market will continue throughout the year as the market benefits from population growth and new manufacturing companies entering the market.


2022 Q1 Greater Phoenix Retail Market Report

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Phillip Hernandez

Director, Research | Arizona


As research manager for Colliers in Arizona, Phillip Hernandez is responsible for proactively developing and implementing research objectives and directing all research activity for the Arizona offices.

He provides leading-edge, thought-provoking research and analysis of market data for use in producing quarterly statistical market reports for each property discipline, as well as other ad hoc reports, research projects and presentations. Phillip analyzes and interprets real estate trends and maintains a database of economic indicators to provide forecasts.

Regardless of the property type or sector, Phillip believes each has a story to tell and that data provides the opportunity to redefine the narrative. With a background in location analytics, he is highly experienced in interpreting complex data sets. Using the latest technology, Phillip developed a system to blend analytics with a visually attractive approach to bring data to life.

Focusing on business development, he leverages market intelligence and insights for thought leadership content strategy in support of client engagement. His goal is to strategically align research and business development efforts and present research in an easily digestible format that promotes Colliers’ market share and revenue growth.

Colleagues describe Phillip as a brilliant storyteller and a passionate, creative and experienced professional.

Prior to joining Colliers, he served as a business analyst at CBRE, where he specialized in creating tailored research reports, as well as unique and interactive applications and dashboards that elevated the market position of assets. Phillip delivered weekly research updates, with relevant lease and sale comps, custom competitive sets and current market activity.

He provided complex market and trend analyses, monitored an extensive database of proprietary market data, and delivered custom quarterly and annual reports that were strategically positioned towards targeted clients. He also led weekly department research meetings to develop initiatives surrounding market trends, produce innovative industry solutions and analyze client-centric objectives.

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Using various in-house and online resources, John monitors real estate transactions and dissects data to analyze and understand what is happening throughout the various property sectors of commercial real estate. John researches and prepares data and background narrative information for market reports and proposals for use by brokers, staff and management, to serve the interests of Colliers’ clients.

Applying his strong background in analytics and research, John tracks all aspects of the commercial real estate market to illustrate and interpret real estate and economic trends. He leverages that knowledge on behalf of Colliers and its clients. John also maintains sales and lease comp databases, monitors tenants-in-the-market activity, and responds to ad hoc research requests.

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Prior to joining Colliers, John was a real estate agent with the Barclay Group, where he focused on zoning and site selection for property developments. He was also responsible for preparing competitor analyses to dissect performance data.

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