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2021 Q4 Greater Phoenix Retail Market Report

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By Phillip Hernandez, Research Manager | Arizona

Q4 2021 Retail Market

Phoenix metro had increased its labor force by 18,300 employees compared to February 2020 (pre-pandemic). Vacancy decreased by 40 bps ending 6.8 percent. Investment sales reached nearly $2 billion in 2021, with 31 percent of that taking place in the fourth quarter. 217,000 square feet of new product completed in the fourth quarter, bringing year-to-date deliveries to 809,467 square feet. Asking rates reached $15.28 per square foot, an increase of 3.73 percent compared to 2020-year end. 

Key Takeaways
  • Investment sales topped $608 million this quarter, bringing year to date volume to $1.9 billion
  • Vacancy declined to record level of 6.8 percent
  • Rental rates increased 3.7 percent year-over-year to $15.28 per square foot
The labor market and talent pool in Phoenix are some of the primary reasons the retail market has been resilient throughout the pandemic compared to other market in the United States. The unemployment rate in Phoenix MSA posted the lowest level ever captured in the market, 2.8 percent at the end of November.

The Greater Phoenix retail market ended the fourth quarter with the same momentum as the third quarter, net absorption reached 530,082 square feet, bringing the year-to-date total to 1.2 million square feet of positive net absorption. 217,000 square feet of new inventory was delivered in the fourth quarter, bringing total deliveries during 2021 to 809,467 square feet.

Outlook
In the month of December, the number of Quick Service Restaurants that opened outpaced closings by 38 percent. Consumer spending has increased by 25.7 percent at the end of November compared to January 2020 throughout the entire Phoenix MSA. This is a very strong indication that the retail sector is thriving in the valley. As the population continues to increase from net in migration, the city is a focal point for new restaurant concepts and retail innovations.
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2021 Q4 Greater Phoenix Retail Market Report

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Related Experts
Phillip Hernandez | Colliers | Phoenix

Phillip Hernandez

Director, Research | Arizona

Phoenix

+1 602 222 5066
+1 520 404 5200
Email

As research manager for Colliers in Arizona, Phillip Hernandez is responsible for proactively developing and implementing research objectives and directing all research activity for the Arizona offices.

He provides leading-edge, thought-provoking research and analysis of market data for use in producing quarterly statistical market reports for each property discipline, as well as other ad hoc reports, research projects and presentations. Phillip analyzes and interprets real estate trends and maintains a database of economic indicators to provide forecasts.

Regardless of the property type or sector, Phillip believes each has a story to tell and that data provides the opportunity to redefine the narrative. With a background in location analytics, he is highly experienced in interpreting complex data sets. Using the latest technology, Phillip developed a system to blend analytics with a visually attractive approach to bring data to life.

Focusing on business development, he leverages market intelligence and insights for thought leadership content strategy in support of client engagement. His goal is to strategically align research and business development efforts and present research in an easily digestible format that promotes Colliers’ market share and revenue growth.

Colleagues describe Phillip as a brilliant storyteller and a passionate, creative and experienced professional.

Prior to joining Colliers, he served as a business analyst at CBRE, where he specialized in creating tailored research reports, as well as unique and interactive applications and dashboards that elevated the market position of assets. Phillip delivered weekly research updates, with relevant lease and sale comps, custom competitive sets and current market activity.

He provided complex market and trend analyses, monitored an extensive database of proprietary market data, and delivered custom quarterly and annual reports that were strategically positioned towards targeted clients. He also led weekly department research meetings to develop initiatives surrounding market trends, produce innovative industry solutions and analyze client-centric objectives.

Previously, Phillip was a GIS analyst for the central region of CBRE. Working exclusively with top-performing markets, he created unique models that illustrated custom real estate datasets through location analytics. Phillip produced high-quality geographic and demographic maps, and investigated multiple approaches to storytelling through map and market analytics.

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John Archer | Colliers | Phoenix

John Archer

Researcher

Phoenix

+1 602 222 5105
Email

As a research analyst for Colliers in Arizona, John Archer delivers in-depth analysis of current market conditions and trends for brokerage professionals and their clients. He compiles market statistics across all property disciplines, including industrial, office, retail, healthcare, multifamily and land.

Using various in-house and online resources, John monitors real estate transactions and dissects data to analyze and understand what is happening throughout the various property sectors of commercial real estate. John researches and prepares data and background narrative information for market reports and proposals for use by brokers, staff and management, to serve the interests of Colliers’ clients.

Applying his strong background in analytics and research, John tracks all aspects of the commercial real estate market to illustrate and interpret real estate and economic trends. He leverages that knowledge on behalf of Colliers and its clients. John also maintains sales and lease comp databases, monitors tenants-in-the-market activity, and responds to ad hoc research requests.

Clients and colleagues describe John as an outgoing, accountable and respectful professional who collaborates with the team to provide outstanding service to Colliers and its clients. He excels in a deadline-driven environment.

Prior to joining Colliers, John was a real estate agent with the Barclay Group, where he focused on zoning and site selection for property developments. He was also responsible for preparing competitor analyses to dissect performance data.

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