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2021 Q4 Greater Phoenix Office Market Report

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Q4 Phoenix Office Hero

Q4 2021 Office Market

Investment sales in 2021 topped $2.9 billion, with 38% of the sales taking place in Q4. We are starting to see newer construction (built 2019 or new) begin to trade at record sales prices. Fourth quarter posted 378,574 square feet of positive net absorption, bring year-to-date to -266,366 square feet.

Direct vacancy has decreased for the first time since the start of the pandemic dropping 40 bps quarter-over-quarter but increased 90 bps year-over-year to end the fourth quarter at 14.0 percent. 

Key Takeaways

  • Rental rates are holding strong despite the increase of sublease availability.
  • Investment sales in 2021 topped $2.9 billion, with 38% of the sales taking place in Q4
  • The 4th quarter saw the first sign of vacancy decreasing since the start of the pandemic

The unemployment rate in Phoenix MSA posted the lowest level ever captured in the market at 2.8 percent at the end of November.

Direct vacancy has decreased 40 bps quarter-over-quarter but increased 90 bps year-over-year to end the fourth quarter at 14.0 percent.

Investment sales were the highlight of the quarter, posting the second highest quarter of total volume in the past three years at $1.06 billion, driving median price per square foot for the quarter to $211.

Outlook

The health of the Phoenix economy is driving new companies into the market and helping the growth of existing companies. The fourth quarter was a positive indicator that the office market is making a recovery. However, the influx of available sublease space and increased vacancy will force speculative 
development to remain paused for the next couple of quarters.


Q4 Phoenix Office SRC

2021 Q4 Greater Phoenix Office Market Report

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Related Experts

Phillip Hernandez

Senior Research Manager, Arizona

Phoenix

As research manager for Colliers in Arizona, Phillip Hernandez is responsible for proactively developing and implementing research objectives and directing all research activity for the Arizona offices.

He provides leading-edge, thought-provoking research and analysis of market data for use in producing quarterly statistical market reports for each property discipline, as well as other ad hoc reports, research projects and presentations. Phillip analyzes and interprets real estate trends and maintains a database of economic indicators to provide forecasts.

Regardless of the property type or sector, Phillip believes each has a story to tell and that data provides the opportunity to redefine the narrative. With a background in location analytics, he is highly experienced in interpreting complex data sets. Using the latest technology, Phillip developed a system to blend analytics with a visually attractive approach to bring data to life.

Focusing on business development, he leverages market intelligence and insights for thought leadership content strategy in support of client engagement. His goal is to strategically align research and business development efforts and present research in an easily digestible format that promotes Colliers’ market share and revenue growth.

Colleagues describe Phillip as a brilliant storyteller and a passionate, creative and experienced professional.

Prior to joining Colliers, he served as a business analyst at CBRE, where he specialized in creating tailored research reports, as well as unique and interactive applications and dashboards that elevated the market position of assets. Phillip delivered weekly research updates, with relevant lease and sale comps, custom competitive sets and current market activity.

He provided complex market and trend analyses, monitored an extensive database of proprietary market data, and delivered custom quarterly and annual reports that were strategically positioned towards targeted clients. He also led weekly department research meetings to develop initiatives surrounding market trends, produce innovative industry solutions and analyze client-centric objectives.

Previously, Phillip was a GIS analyst for the central region of CBRE. Working exclusively with top-performing markets, he created unique models that illustrated custom real estate datasets through location analytics. Phillip produced high-quality geographic and demographic maps, and investigated multiple approaches to storytelling through map and market analytics.

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John Archer

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As a research analyst for Colliers in Arizona, John Archer delivers in-depth analysis of current market conditions and trends for brokerage professionals and their clients. He compiles market statistics across all property disciplines, including industrial, office, retail, healthcare, multifamily and land.

Using various in-house and online resources, John monitors real estate transactions and dissects data to analyze and understand what is happening throughout the various property sectors of commercial real estate. John researches and prepares data and background narrative information for market reports and proposals for use by brokers, staff and management, to serve the interests of Colliers’ clients.

Applying his strong background in analytics and research, John tracks all aspects of the commercial real estate market to illustrate and interpret real estate and economic trends. He leverages that knowledge on behalf of Colliers and its clients. John also maintains sales and lease comp databases, monitors tenants-in-the-market activity, and responds to ad hoc research requests.

Clients and colleagues describe John as an outgoing, accountable and respectful professional who collaborates with the team to provide outstanding service to Colliers and its clients. He excels in a deadline-driven environment.

Prior to joining Colliers, John was a real estate agent with the Barclay Group, where he focused on zoning and site selection for property developments. He was also responsible for preparing competitor analyses to dissect performance data.

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