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Colliers 2020 Q4 Greater Phoenix Retail Market Report

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Q4 2020 Retail Market

The Phoenix retail market fought a hard battle this year with multiple national companies announcing either bankruptcy or closures throughout the nation.

  • Q4 ended with 64,036 SF of negative net absorption, but stayed positive over the entire year, ending at 215,692 SF
  • Rental rates increased 0.68% YOY and 0.82% over-the-quarter, ending at $14.73
  • Vacancy increased to 7.9%, up 20 bps from last quarter and up 60 bps YOY
  • Airport Area submarket cluster ended the year with the lowest vacancy of 4.8%, but increased vacancy YOY by 90 bps
  • West Valley submarket cluster delivered over 200,000 SF of new product this year
  • West Valley had the largest decline in vacancy YOY, dropping 70 bps from 2019
  • Over 1.1 million square feet of new retail inventory delivered in 2020
  • Investment sales outperformed all three previous quarters, illustrating the traction the Phoenix market is gaining from investors
  • The median price per square foot (over 10,000 SF and $1 million) increased 16.7% over-the-quarter and 12.1% over-the-year, ending at $199.35 PSF
  • Q4 sales volume ended at $273 million, driving the year's total to $760 million
Outlook: The outlook for the Greater Phoenix retail market remains extremely positive. Phoenix is moving up to become a top tier market. Many regional tenants are looking to relocate to Greater Phoenix and existing tenants are planning expansion. Creative ideas to repurpose old mall space are beginning to surface, some include converting the space into outdoor mall configurations. Other ideas explored include turning the space into schools, adding grocery tenants and creating co-working office space as anchor tenants.

Vaccine progress will remain a dominant market narrative throughout 2021. As confidence grows, we will see a transition year, moving back to services from goods, and to in-person from virtual. The scars of 2020 will remain vivid from businesses that did not survive, but the market is in a great position to continue pushing forward.

In the midst of the COVID-19 outbreak, information and data is emerging at a quick and uneven rate. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable at the time the report was written. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.

Retail Market Colliers International in Arizona

Colliers 2020 Q4 Greater Phoenix Retail Market Report

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Phillip Hernandez

Research Manager

Phoenix

As research manager for Colliers International in Arizona, I am responsible for proactively developing and implementing research objectives and directing all research activity for the Arizona offices.

I provide leading-edge, thought-provoking research and analysis of market data for use in producing quarterly statistical market reports for each property discipline, as well as other ad hoc reports, research projects and presentations. I analyze and interpret real estate trends and maintain a database of economic indicators to provide forecasts.

Regardless of the property type or sector, I believe each has a story to tell and that data provides the opportunity to redefine the narrative. With a background in location analytics, I am highly experienced in interpreting complex data sets. Using the latest technology, I developed a system to blend analytics with a visually attractive approach to bring data to life.

Focusing on business development, I leverage market intelligence and insights for thought leadership content strategy in support of client engagement. My goal is to strategically align research and business development efforts and present research in an easily digestible format that promotes Colliers’ market share and revenue growth.

Colleagues describe me as a brilliant storyteller and a passionate, creative and experienced professional.

Prior to joining Colliers, I served as a business analyst at CBRE, where I specialized in creating tailored research reports, as well as unique and interactive applications and dashboards that elevated the market position of assets.

I delivered weekly research updates with relevant lease and sale comps, custom competitive sets and current market activity. I provided complex market and trend analyses, monitored an extensive database of proprietary market data, and delivered custom quarterly and annual reports that were strategically positioned towards targeted clients. I also led weekly department research meetings to develop initiatives surrounding market trends, produce innovative industry solutions and analyze client-centric objectives.

Previously, I was a GIS analyst for the central region of CBRE. Working exclusively with top-performing markets, I created unique models that illustrated custom real estate datasets through location analytics. I produced high-quality geographic and demographic maps, and investigated multiple approaches to storytelling through map and market analytics.

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Casey Koziol

Researcher

Phoenix

As a research analyst for Colliers International in Arizona, I deliver in-depth analysis of current market conditions and trends for brokerage professionals and their clients. I compile market statistics across all property disciplines, including industrial, office, retail, healthcare, multifamily and land.

Using various in-house and online resources, I prepare data and background narrative information for market reports, publications and proposals for use by brokers, staff and management to serve the interests of Colliers’ clients.

In support of sales, leasing and business development, I create compelling client-facing presentations that illustrate and interpret real estate and economic trends. I track and analyze all aspects of the commercial real estate market and leverage that knowledge on behalf of Colliers and its clients. I also maintain sales and lease comp databases, monitor tenants-in-the-market activity, and respond to ad hoc research requests.

Clients and colleagues describe me as an ambitious and results-oriented professional, who strives for service excellence. My commitment to integrity, collaborative approach and effective communications make me a valued partner to internal and external clients.

My background includes working with landlord and tenant clients, primarily in the industrial and education sectors. Prior to joining Colliers, I served as a real estate sales and acquisitions intern at Tucson Realty & Trust Company, where I specialized in identifying potential buyers and sellers for commercial properties in the Tucson metropolitan area. Accomplishments included locating a buyer for an industrial storage property in south Tucson and facilitating a 1031 exchange on behalf of a client.

I was also a marketing analyst intern for Keyser Commercial Real Estate in Scottsdale, where I supported business developments efforts thorough researching properties on CoStar for existing and potential clients for the tenant-focused firm.

Outside work, my interests and activities include international travel, professional and collegiate sports, open water diving (I am scuba certified) and a variety of adventure challenges. I am semi-fluent in written and spoken Spanish, after spending a semester in Spain.

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