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Colliers 2020 Q4 Greater Phoenix Retail Market Report

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Q4 2020 Retail Market

The Phoenix retail market fought a hard battle this year with multiple national companies announcing either bankruptcy or closures throughout the nation.

  • Q4 ended with 64,036 SF of negative net absorption, but stayed positive over the entire year, ending at 215,692 SF
  • Rental rates increased 0.68% YOY and 0.82% over-the-quarter, ending at $14.73
  • Vacancy increased to 7.9%, up 20 bps from last quarter and up 60 bps YOY
  • Airport Area submarket cluster ended the year with the lowest vacancy of 4.8%, but increased vacancy YOY by 90 bps
  • West Valley submarket cluster delivered over 200,000 SF of new product this year
  • West Valley had the largest decline in vacancy YOY, dropping 70 bps from 2019
  • Over 1.1 million square feet of new retail inventory delivered in 2020
  • Investment sales outperformed all three previous quarters, illustrating the traction the Phoenix market is gaining from investors
  • The median price per square foot (over 10,000 SF and $1 million) increased 16.7% over-the-quarter and 12.1% over-the-year, ending at $199.35 PSF
  • Q4 sales volume ended at $273 million, driving the year's total to $760 million
Outlook: The outlook for the Greater Phoenix retail market remains extremely positive. Phoenix is moving up to become a top tier market. Many regional tenants are looking to relocate to Greater Phoenix and existing tenants are planning expansion. Creative ideas to repurpose old mall space are beginning to surface, some include converting the space into outdoor mall configurations. Other ideas explored include turning the space into schools, adding grocery tenants and creating co-working office space as anchor tenants.

Vaccine progress will remain a dominant market narrative throughout 2021. As confidence grows, we will see a transition year, moving back to services from goods, and to in-person from virtual. The scars of 2020 will remain vivid from businesses that did not survive, but the market is in a great position to continue pushing forward.

In the midst of the COVID-19 outbreak, information and data is emerging at a quick and uneven rate. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable at the time the report was written. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.

Retail Market Colliers International in Arizona

Colliers 2020 Q4 Greater Phoenix Retail Market Report

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Phillip Hernandez

Research Manager

Phoenix

As research manager for Colliers in Arizona, Phillip Hernandez is responsible for proactively developing and implementing research objectives and directing all research activity for the Arizona offices.

He provides leading-edge, thought-provoking research and analysis of market data for use in producing quarterly statistical market reports for each property discipline, as well as other ad hoc reports, research projects and presentations. Phillip analyzes and interprets real estate trends and maintains a database of economic indicators to provide forecasts.

Regardless of the property type or sector, Phillip believes each has a story to tell and that data provides the opportunity to redefine the narrative. With a background in location analytics, he is highly experienced in interpreting complex data sets. Using the latest technology, Phillip developed a system to blend analytics with a visually attractive approach to bring data to life.

Focusing on business development, he leverages market intelligence and insights for thought leadership content strategy in support of client engagement. His goal is to strategically align research and business development efforts and present research in an easily digestible format that promotes Colliers’ market share and revenue growth.

Colleagues describe Phillip as a brilliant storyteller and a passionate, creative and experienced professional.

Prior to joining Colliers, he served as a business analyst at CBRE, where he specialized in creating tailored research reports, as well as unique and interactive applications and dashboards that elevated the market position of assets. Phillip delivered weekly research updates, with relevant lease and sale comps, custom competitive sets and current market activity.

He provided complex market and trend analyses, monitored an extensive database of proprietary market data, and delivered custom quarterly and annual reports that were strategically positioned towards targeted clients. He also led weekly department research meetings to develop initiatives surrounding market trends, produce innovative industry solutions and analyze client-centric objectives.

Previously, Phillip was a GIS analyst for the central region of CBRE. Working exclusively with top-performing markets, he created unique models that illustrated custom real estate datasets through location analytics. Phillip produced high-quality geographic and demographic maps, and investigated multiple approaches to storytelling through map and market analytics.

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