According to the BLS, the Tucson MSA gained 2,700 jobs over-the-month. Since May, 14,100 jobs have recouped or 41 percent of March/April’s job losses.
As of the end of Q3, the Tucson MSA continues to be a nation leader in y/y rent growth rising 4.6 percent to $954, four times higher growth rate than the National average, which contracted (0.1) percent, but still $457 below the National average rent of $1,411.
Occupancy rates continue to increase rising 90 bps over-the-year to 95.6 percent. This marks the 10th consecutive quarter occupancy has been above the 5-year average of 94.3 percent.
Investment sales volume increased significantly over-the-quarter rising 147 percent to $89.4M with average PPU (Price Per Unit) increasing 196 percent to $160,215.
At this point, what the long term Covid-19 impacts will be on both the real estate industry, and market overall, remains opaque. Nonetheless, anecdotal evidence suggests that one major effect is the growing movement of people leaving highly dense, expensive Gateway markets for those on the interior and, at least in the interim, are taking their jobs/incomes with them. As a result, for metros like Tucson both multifamily rents and single-family home sales have continued to perform exceptionally well.
Despite significant near-term volatility, from the election results to potential for new lockdowns to escalating lumber costs, up 91 percent y/y, to stalled stimulus talks, there are a few bright spots: one, despite significant increases in the number of Covid-positive cases, per capita mortality rates have continued to decline. In fact, for Arizona, the per capita mortality rate as of 10/27 was 0.08% in Pima County 0.06%.
Second, the employment bounce-back has been significantly faster than many anticipated and finally, while there is nothing set in stone, there are several proposals currently being discussed in Washington to extend unemployment benefits but that will not occur until after the election.