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Colliers 2020 Q3 Phoenix MSA Multifamily Review

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Key Takeaways
According to the BLS, of all the U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) with over one million in population as of 2010 Census (51 MSAs), Phoenix MSA was the 4th best performing metro in September, having gained back 51 percent of March/April’s job losses.
 
Despite previously reported minimal contractions in quarter-over-quarter readings due to Covid, as of the end of Q3, the Phoenix MSA continues to be a nation leader in y/y rent growth rising 4.1 percent to $1,247, four times higher growth rate than the national average which contracted (0.1) percent, but still
$164 below the National average rent of $1,411.
 
Occupancy rates continue to defy expectations and increased 30 bps over-the-year to 95.4 percent despite delivering a high of 3,567 new units, well above the three-year delivery average of 2,000 units. This marks the 35th consecutive quarter occupancy has been above the 20-year average of 91.6 percent.

Given the current construction rate, 2020 should prove to be the highest delivery amount since 2009’s 9,315-units. There are 22,152 units currently under construction throughout Greater Phoenix and marked the 26th consecutive quarter where the number of units under construction was above 10,000.
 
Investment sales volume increased significantly over-the-quarter rising 238 percent to $1.2B with average PPU (Price Per Unit) increasing 4 percent to $182,268.
 
Outlook
For the last five years the Phoenix MSA was growing, on average, +/-215 residents per day. Over this same time, Maricopa County was, and continues to be, the fastest growing county in the nation with the Phoenix MSA overtaking Boston as the 10th largest MSA.

While population counts, and estimates, for 2020 are yet-to-be released, current evidence (from moving data to net new utility hookups to retail sales) suggest that over the last six months Phoenix’s growth rate has increased nearly 25% to +/-260 new residents per day.

If this holds true, and assuming a 60/40 ownership-to-rentership household split, Phoenix will need an additional +/-3,000 units just to accommodate the extra population growth. Considering our current housing deficit of +/-32,000 units, market equilibrium is not foreseen in the near-to-medium terms.
 
Despite significant near-term volatility, from the election results to potential for new lockdowns to escalating lumber costs, up 91 percent y/y, to stalled stimulus talks, there are a few bright spots: one, despite significant increases in the number of Covid-positive cases, per capita mortality rates have continued to decline. In fact, for Arizona, the per capita mortality rate as of 10/27 was 0.08% in Maricopa County 0.07%.

Second, the employment bounce-back has been significantly faster than many anticipated and finally, while there is nothing set in stone, there are several proposals currently being discussed in Washington to extend unemployment benefits but that will not occur until after the election.

Phoenix Multifamily Market Colliers International in Arizona

Colliers 2020 Q3 Phoenix MSA Multifamily Review

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Related Experts

Thomas Brophy

Research Director

Phoenix

As national director of multifamily research & analytics for the Cooke Multifamily Team wit Colliers, Thomas Brophy is responsible for the aggregation, management and analysis of all market, and related, data sets. He provides market-leading research services through the systematic deployment of custom, purpose-built software and analytic platforms for the creation of qualitative, not just quantitative, analysis.

In addition to publishing quarterly statistical reports for each market in which the team’s clients operate, he maintains a database of both publicly available, and in-house built, leading economic/real estate indicators to provide forecasts and analyze and interpret real estate trends as they happen. Thomas also produces customized research reports on behalf of the team and clients, prepares market presentations and develops ad hoc research projects in support of business development.

Thomas’ ethos: question different; for it is in asking better, more salient, questions that true market knowledge, and understanding is found. In our new era of big data, we have reached peak data overload. Knowledge is a derivative of information; wisdom, knowledge’s ultimate abstract, can only be gained when tethered to, and guided by, past experience.

Data without context is like a light without a bulb, a market without a narrative or an explanation without a common reference point. Data is but a guide to asking better questions; better questions lead to greater understanding, which lead to better results.

The Cooke Multifamily Team focuses on institutional and private equity assets, ranging from core plus to workforce housing across the United States. The team includes Cindy Cooke, Brad Cooke, Matt Roach, Chris Roach, Teresa Lowery, Ron Cameron, Eric Blair, Nicholas Solo, Alice Bean, Aimee DeYoung and Kellyanne Kennedy.

Prior to his current role, Thomas served as research director for Colliers in Arizona, managing the research department entrusted with all market data and analysis. His creative outlook significantly enhanced research services for clients and brokers.

Thomas has extensive experience in collecting, analyzing and preparing market and economic data and research, as well as expertise in corporate communications, investor relations, strategic planning, brand management and public speaking.

Previously, Thomas was director of research for ABI Multifamily, where he developed market reports and research data used in marketing materials for ABI offices in Phoenix, Tucson, Sacramento and San Diego. He oversaw all data collection and reporting, wrote monthly market insight articles, and developed market podcasts.

Thomas served as director of research and partner for Neighborhood Ventures, a multifamily investment firm. In his role, he collected, analyzed and wrote market data reports for use in investor presentations, offering materials and corporate communications.

As principal with EPU Investments, Thomas directed business and research operations for a multi-divisional investment company involved in single- and multifamily development and land services. As an affordable housing specialist at Hendricks & Partners (now Berkadia), he helped create the affordable housing division, and assisted brokers and clients in the acquisition and disposition of assets across the U.S.

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Cindy Cooke

Senior Executive Vice President

Phoenix

As a senior executive vice president with Colliers, Cindy Cooke leads the Cooke Multifamily Team—one of the top full-service multifamily investment teams in the nation. Team members are Brad Cooke, Chris Roach, Matt Roach, Teresa Lowery, Ron Cameron, Thomas Brophy, Eric Blair, Nicholas Solo, Alice Bean, Aimee DeYoung and Kellyanne Kennedy.

Cindy and her team work with sellers and qualified buyers across multiple markets, with a platform that allows them to effortlessly navigate across state lines. Multifamily asset types served include luxury, core, value add, high-rise, new development, student and workforce housing, and land.

With over 38 years of experience, Cindy’s multifamily expertise includes large portfolio sales, conventional and affordable assets, new development, construction, property assemblage, and debt/equity placements.

Her ability to maximize value, minimize risk and accelerate velocity for clients is the driving force behind all of Cindy’s decisions. She leverages her in-depth experience and long-term industry relationships to benefit the team’s institutional and large private capital clients and provides the market insights clients need to make strategic investment decisions.

Cindy is involved in every aspect of the transaction from start to finish and understands the importance of each step, from asset evaluation to marketing to buyer qualification and negotiations, due diligence, financing and closing. She delivers unmatched service through a hands-on, personal approach, with a primary focus on building valued client relationships.

The Cooke Multifamily Team serves and supports its clients with integrity, respect and kindness and is the advisor of choice for many of the world’s most innovative and successful companies. Our team consistently meets and exceeds client expectations and ensures each transaction is completed as smoothly as possible, with no detail unnoticed.

Cindy's experience at Colliers has provided her with national and international exposure. In addition to her multifamily brokerage business, she served as Interim Manager and Designated Broker for Colliers in Arizona in 2005. From global conferences in Shanghai to daily interactions with more than 150 Arizona brokers and staff, Cindy helped lead the Arizona to become one of the top Colliers markets worldwide.

Cindy started her brokerage career in multifamily, emphasizing development, property assemblage, zoning and construction. Early on, to accommodate the needs of her clients, she formed her own commercial real estate brokerage and mortgage broker firm and was the sole proprietor for 10 years. Cindy was also the partner of Blue Ridge Park Business Park, assembling, zoning and planning the largest business park in Raleigh, North Carolina.

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Brad Cooke

Executive Vice President

Phoenix

As an executive vice president with Colliers, Brad Cooke is a senior member of the Cooke Multifamily Team, one of the top full-service multifamily investment teams in the nation, serving clients across multiple states and markets. Team members include Cindy Cooke, Chris Roach, Matt Roach, Teresa Lowery, Ron Cameron, Thomas Brophy, Eric Blair, Nicholas Solo, Alice Bean, Aimee DeYoung and Kellyanne Kennedy.

Multifamily asset types served by the team include luxury, core, value add, high-rise, new development, student and workforce housing, and land.

Working closely with clients, Brad helps determine and refine their objectives and guide them in successfully buying or selling a property or portfolio, while also growing their business. He provides critical market data and analysis to enable clients to quickly capitalize on emerging opportunities and realize optimal property value.

Brad has established lasting business relationships for the team with leading local, national and international companies through a dedicated and personal approach that ensures client expectations are not only met, but surpassed. He is involved at every stage of the transaction and oversees underwriting and due diligence to facilitate a smooth and timely closing process.

His ability to strategize, coupled with extensive industry knowledge, produces exceptional results for clients, as evidenced by the team’s 100% closing ratio and high degree of repeat business and referrals.

The Cooke Multifamily Team has established core values that set the team apart from the competition and are the foundation of every deal they do. The team provides exceptional value through product, process and, most importantly, relationships.

The team acts with integrity and is respectful, supportive and kind. They treat each deal as if it was their own investment and dive deep into the data to make sure clients make fully informed decisions. The team is constantly refining its craft to ensure they provide exceptional service at every turn of the deal. They work hard, are proactive, are intentional, and get the job done

In 2006, Brad joined Colliers as vice president with the Cooke Multifamily Team, finding his passion and focus in the multifamily sector. He has played a strategic part in making the team a national leader in multifamily investments.

Brad’s background includes serving as designated broker/owner of Interlock Realty, a residential real estate firm, and as the leasing agent for over 1 million square feet of industrial space. His real estate career began in 2002, as an office leasing agent, and has since been exposed to all areas and facets of the real estate industry.

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Matt Roach

Vice President

Phoenix

Matt Roach is a vice president with Colliers and member of the Cooke Multifamily Team—one of the top multifamily teams in the nation. The team includes Cindy Cooke, Brad Cooke, Chris Roach, Teresa Lowery, Ron Cameron, Thomas Brophy, Eric Blair, Nicholas Solo, Alice Bean, Aimee DeYoung and Kellyanne Kennedy.

The Cooke Multifamily Team focuses on institutional and private equity assets, ranging from core plus to workforce housing across the United States.

Matt's analytical nature and tenacity make him a valuable member of the team. He is well-versed in financial modeling, forecasting and strategic positioning of multifamily assets. He maintains a keen pulse on the market through macro and microeconomic drivers that can affect individual property activity.

Matt serves as a trusted advisor to clients through his methodical and detail-oriented approach, enabling him to understand and advance his clients’ interests. Described as dedicated, hard-working and trustworthy by clients and colleagues, he prides himself on being available, accessible and responsive.

Prior to joining Colliers, Matt was a vice president of multifamily investment sales with ORION Investment Real Estate in Phoenix. His background also includes equity research, previously working at D.A. Davidson and MKM Partners, both middle-market investment banks, where he focused on providing industry-leading research, data and financial modeling for institutional clients, including Fortress, Citadel, BlackRock, T. Rowe Price and Fidelity.

Matt and his wife Mariah currently reside in Phoenix. He is active with his church and supports various nonprofit organizations, including Arizona Foster Care and Colliers AZ Cares charitable foundation. In his free time, Matt enjoys traveling, hiking, photography and fishing,

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Chris Roach

Vice President

Phoenix

Chris Roach is a vice president with Colliers and member of the Cooke Multifamily Team—one of the top multifamily teams in the nation. The team includes Cindy Cooke, Brad Cooke, Matt Roach, Teresa Lowery, Ron Cameron, Thomas Brophy, Eric Blair, Nicholas Solo, Alice Bean, Aimee DeYoung and Kellyanne Kennedy.

The Cooke Multifamily Team focuses on institutional and private equity assets, ranging from core plus to workforce housing across the United States.

Chris has emerged as a proven leader within the multifamily market, with clients that include institutional, private equity and individual investors. His in-depth understanding of both investment sales and capital markets enables him to complete complex transactions, while ensuring a smooth process for all parties. His experience includes market rate and affordable housing, bulk condominium sales, mixed-use, new construction, land and complex value-add transactions.

Clients and colleagues find Chris to be diligent, persistent, knowledgeable, trustworthy and responsive. His proven track record of success within an ever-changing marketplace has allowed him to forge deep client relationships while continually achieving superior results.

Chris joined Colliers in 2018, with extensive experience in sales, marketing and entrepreneurship. His background in both business and sports gave him exceptional skills in sales, analysis and negotiations. Previously, Chris joined ORION Investment Real Estate in Phoenix in 2014, where he was a senior vice president of multifamily investment sales.

An early source for Chris's drive and determination was his successful college career playing Division 1 baseball.

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