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Colliers International 2020 Q3 Greater Phoenix Retail Market Report

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Q3 2020 Retail Market

The Greater Phoenix retail market ended the third quarter in positive fashion, posting 101,270 square feet of positive net absorption.

  • Leasing involved a hefty number of construction completions for large, big box retailers and grocery stores.
  • Vacancy increased to 7.7%, elevating 10 bps over-the-quarter and 40 bps year-over-year
  • Rental rates are struggling to maintain pre-pandemic levels, increasing 0.55% year-over-year but experiencing a decline of 0.20% over-the-quarter, ending at $14.62 PSF
  • Five new projects were delivered this quarter, totaling 353,383 SF, entering the inventory with an extremely low vacancy of only 3.16%, due to large tenant commitments
  • Investment sales volume (over 10,000 SF and over $1 million) attracted more investor interest, increasing 130% from last quarter to post $182,700,039 of sales. This sales figure marks a decline of 38% from third quarter 2019.
  • Leasing activity gained strength, as the number of deals signed increased 122% over-the-quarter, but is still down 20% from this time last year
Outlook: As new dynamics are formed in the brick and mortar environment, new creative ways of consumer shopping will test the market. Multiple variations of retail sales will be analyzed. These will include shopping online, with consumers driving to physical locations for product pick-up, as well as the option of using physical stores as a showroom for inventory with products shipped from the warehouse to homes. Large big box discount retailers and grocery stores will continue to drive the market, especially in the growing regions of the Valley.

There are multiple quick-service restaurants looking to enter and expand in the Valley (delivery service is here to stay). Until consumers gain full confidence about dining restaurants, curbside pick-up will continue to be a dominating service offered at restaurants. This allows restaurants to continue operating, but with limited staff and occupancy. Phoenix will attract more investors because of the growing economy and population.

The upcoming election has placed Phoenix in the spotlight and positioned us as the nation’s top market for political advertising spending. At a local level, there are state propositions that could impact our economy and image as a pro-business city.

In the midst of the COVID-19 outbreak, information and data is emerging at a quick and uneven rate. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable at the time the report was written. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.

Retail Market Colliers International in Arizona

Colliers International 2020 Q3 Greater Phoenix Retail Market Report

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Related Experts

Phillip Hernandez

Research Manager


As research manager for Colliers International in Arizona, I am responsible for proactively developing and implementing research objectives and directing all research activity for the Arizona offices.

I provide leading-edge, thought-provoking research and analysis of market data for use in producing quarterly statistical market reports for each property discipline, as well as other ad hoc reports, research projects and presentations. I analyze and interpret real estate trends and maintain a database of economic indicators to provide forecasts.

Regardless of the property type or sector, I believe each has a story to tell and that data provides the opportunity to redefine the narrative. With a background in location analytics, I am highly experienced in interpreting complex data sets. Using the latest technology, I developed a system to blend analytics with a visually attractive approach to bring data to life.

Focusing on business development, I leverage market intelligence and insights for thought leadership content strategy in support of client engagement. My goal is to strategically align research and business development efforts and present research in an easily digestible format that promotes Colliers’ market share and revenue growth.

Colleagues describe me as a brilliant storyteller and a passionate, creative and experienced professional.

Prior to joining Colliers, I served as a business analyst at CBRE, where I specialized in creating tailored research reports, as well as unique and interactive applications and dashboards that elevated the market position of assets.

I delivered weekly research updates with relevant lease and sale comps, custom competitive sets and current market activity. I provided complex market and trend analyses, monitored an extensive database of proprietary market data, and delivered custom quarterly and annual reports that were strategically positioned towards targeted clients. I also led weekly department research meetings to develop initiatives surrounding market trends, produce innovative industry solutions and analyze client-centric objectives.

Previously, I was a GIS analyst for the central region of CBRE. Working exclusively with top-performing markets, I created unique models that illustrated custom real estate datasets through location analytics. I produced high-quality geographic and demographic maps, and investigated multiple approaches to storytelling through map and market analytics.

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Casey Koziol



As a research analyst for Colliers International in Arizona, I deliver in-depth analysis of current market conditions and trends for brokerage professionals and their clients. I compile market statistics across all property disciplines, including industrial, office, retail, healthcare, multifamily and land.

Using various in-house and online resources, I prepare data and background narrative information for market reports, publications and proposals for use by brokers, staff and management to serve the interests of Colliers’ clients.

In support of sales, leasing and business development, I create compelling client-facing presentations that illustrate and interpret real estate and economic trends. I track and analyze all aspects of the commercial real estate market and leverage that knowledge on behalf of Colliers and its clients. I also maintain sales and lease comp databases, monitor tenants-in-the-market activity, and respond to ad hoc research requests.

Clients and colleagues describe me as an ambitious and results-oriented professional, who strives for service excellence. My commitment to integrity, collaborative approach and effective communications make me a valued partner to internal and external clients.

My background includes working with landlord and tenant clients, primarily in the industrial and education sectors. Prior to joining Colliers, I served as a real estate sales and acquisitions intern at Tucson Realty & Trust Company, where I specialized in identifying potential buyers and sellers for commercial properties in the Tucson metropolitan area. Accomplishments included locating a buyer for an industrial storage property in south Tucson and facilitating a 1031 exchange on behalf of a client.

I was also a marketing analyst intern for Keyser Commercial Real Estate in Scottsdale, where I supported business developments efforts thorough researching properties on CoStar for existing and potential clients for the tenant-focused firm.

Outside work, my interests and activities include international travel, professional and collegiate sports, open water diving (I am scuba certified) and a variety of adventure challenges. I am semi-fluent in written and spoken Spanish, after spending a semester in Spain.

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