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Colliers International 2020 Q1 Greater Phoenix Retail Market Report

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Q1 2020 Retail Market

  • The Greater Phoenix retail market ended the first quarter strong and healthy with 125,641 square feet of net absorption.
  • Vacancy dropped 10 bps over the past 12 months but increased 10 bps over the quarter to the current 7.3 percent.
  • The healthy vacancy held steady while the retail market delivered over 312,000 square feet this quarter, primarily in the Scottsdale and East Valley submarket cluster.
  • Notable deliveries included the anticipated Lifetime Fitness at Biltmore Fashion Park and The Point at Eastmark, located on the NWC of Signal Butte and Warner roads in Mesa, which secured Safeway as the key anchor tenant.
  • Rents climbed 2.2 percent higher over the past 12 months, with asking rents rising to $15.07 per square foot.
  • North Phoenix, South Mountain, and Northwest Phoenix submarket clusters saw the highest year-over-year asking rate increases: 8.21% to $12.35, 4.91% to $15.69, and 4.64% to $15.70, respectively.

During the week ending March 28, 2020, a sizable 88,940 unemployment claims were filed in the state of Arizona, up 203 percent from the previous week. We anticipate this number will continue increasing as companies in all industries are forced to keep their doors closed as part of the effort to stop the spread of COVID-19.

In mid-March, roughly two thirds of the way through MLB Spring Training season, the remainder of the baseball games were cancelled. With 15 baseball teams playing across 10 facilities throughout the Valley, it is estimated the economic impact will be between $75 million to $100 million in lost revenue. Cancelling the schedule not only hit the baseball facilities, but also tourism, restaurants and bars that rely heavily on February and March as profit-generating months that carry them through the slow summer season.
Outlook: Ten years of consecutive job growth in Metro Phoenix was abruptly ended in the final two weeks of the first quarter. Certain industries might not feel the impact of jobs lost and some might even benefit.

Many retailers whose business model relies on attracting customers to their establishment will see the largest negative impact, while even the apparel industry witnessed sales cut in half during March. Large discount stores and grocery stores have seen their shelves emptied and online ordering has picked up tremendously. E-commerce is expected to increase between 15 to 20 percent over the year.

Landlords have been working closely with their tenants on a case-by case basis, but many retailers are in panic mode as they face a situation without a clear set timeline for re-opening.

In the midst of the COVID-19 outbreak, information and data is emerging at a quick and uneven rate. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable at the time the report was written. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.

Retail Market Colliers International in Arizona

Colliers International 2020 Q1 Greater Phoenix Retail Market Report

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Related Experts

Phillip Hernandez

Research Manager


As research manager for Colliers International in Arizona, I am responsible for proactively developing and implementing research objectives and directing all research activity for the Arizona offices.

I provide leading-edge, thought-provoking research and analysis of market data for use in producing quarterly statistical market reports for each property discipline, as well as other ad hoc reports, research projects and presentations. I analyze and interpret real estate trends and maintain a database of economic indicators to provide forecasts.

Regardless of the property type or sector, I believe each has a story to tell and that data provides the opportunity to redefine the narrative. With a background in location analytics, I am highly experienced in interpreting complex data sets. Using the latest technology, I developed a system to blend analytics with a visually attractive approach to bring data to life.

Focusing on business development, I leverage market intelligence and insights for thought leadership content strategy in support of client engagement. My goal is to strategically align research and business development efforts and present research in an easily digestible format that promotes Colliers’ market share and revenue growth.

Colleagues describe me as a brilliant storyteller and a passionate, creative and experienced professional.

Prior to joining Colliers, I served as a business analyst at CBRE, where I specialized in creating tailored research reports, as well as unique and interactive applications and dashboards that elevated the market position of assets.

I delivered weekly research updates with relevant lease and sale comps, custom competitive sets and current market activity. I provided complex market and trend analyses, monitored an extensive database of proprietary market data, and delivered custom quarterly and annual reports that were strategically positioned towards targeted clients. I also led weekly department research meetings to develop initiatives surrounding market trends, produce innovative industry solutions and analyze client-centric objectives.

Previously, I was a GIS analyst for the central region of CBRE. Working exclusively with top-performing markets, I created unique models that illustrated custom real estate datasets through location analytics. I produced high-quality geographic and demographic maps, and investigated multiple approaches to storytelling through map and market analytics.

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Casey Koziol



As a research analyst for Colliers International in Arizona, I deliver in-depth analysis of current market conditions and trends for brokerage professionals and their clients. I compile market statistics across all property disciplines, including industrial, office, retail, healthcare, multifamily and land.

Using various in-house and online resources, I prepare data and background narrative information for market reports, publications and proposals for use by brokers, staff and management to serve the interests of Colliers’ clients.

In support of sales, leasing and business development, I create compelling client-facing presentations that illustrate and interpret real estate and economic trends. I track and analyze all aspects of the commercial real estate market and leverage that knowledge on behalf of Colliers and its clients. I also maintain sales and lease comp databases, monitor tenants-in-the-market activity, and respond to ad hoc research requests.

Clients and colleagues describe me as an ambitious and results-oriented professional, who strives for service excellence. My commitment to integrity, collaborative approach and effective communications make me a valued partner to internal and external clients.

My background includes working with landlord and tenant clients, primarily in the industrial and education sectors. Prior to joining Colliers, I served as a real estate sales and acquisitions intern at Tucson Realty & Trust Company, where I specialized in identifying potential buyers and sellers for commercial properties in the Tucson metropolitan area. Accomplishments included locating a buyer for an industrial storage property in south Tucson and facilitating a 1031 exchange on behalf of a client.

I was also a marketing analyst intern for Keyser Commercial Real Estate in Scottsdale, where I supported business developments efforts thorough researching properties on CoStar for existing and potential clients for the tenant-focused firm.

Outside work, my interests and activities include international travel, professional and collegiate sports, open water diving (I am scuba certified) and a variety of adventure challenges. I am semi-fluent in written and spoken Spanish, after spending a semester in Spain.

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