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2021 | Year-End Texas Seniors Housing & Care Research & Forecast Report

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2021_YearEnd_SrHousing_HERO_1536x1040
Key Takeaways
  • Occupancy up quarter over quarter and annually
  • Absorption decreased quarterly, but increased annually
  • Average rents rose over the year and over the quarter
  • New supply increased over the quarter and year-over-year
  • Sales volume still below pre-pandemic levels
Senior Housing (includes IL and AL Majority)
 2021_YearEnd_SrHousing_Occupancy Rate   2021_YearEnd_SrHousing_Net Absorption 
 2021_YearEnd_SrHousing_Under Construction    2021_YearEnd_SrHousing_Monthly Rent
 
Nursing Care
2021_YearEnd_NursingCare_Occupancy Rate     2021_YearEnd_NursingCare_Net Absorption
 2021_YearEnd_NursingCare_Under Construction    2021_YearEnd_NursingCare_Monthly Rent
 
Texas Highlights

Texas’ 2021 population reached 29.8 million, an increase of 6.8% over the last five years. The population is forecasted to increase 7.2% between 2021 and 2026, adding 2.1 million residents. The demographic group representing the largest segment of population are 25 to 29 years (7.7%) and 30 to 34 years (7.3%). Seniors 65 and older represent 13.9 percent of Texas’ population, or 4.1 million residents. Texas’ population is expected to grow 14% between 2016 and 2026 vs. the U.S. population projected population growth of only 6%.

The Texas Seniors Housing overall occupancy rate rose 250 basis points year-over-year and increased 60 basis points over the quarter. The average monthly rent rose 2.8 percent on an annual basis from $3,840 to $3,946.

Historic Comparison - Seniors Housing only

Seniors Housing only (excludes nursing care)

2021_YearEnd_SrHousing_Historic Comparison

Texas Population by Age Cohort

2021_YearEnd_SrHousing_PopulationbyAge

Market Indicators
 2021_YearEnd_SrHousing_Market Indicators

 

 
Pricing & Sales Volume

Average sales prices for the different senior care sectors experienced a low in Q1 2021, but rose over the last three quarters. As a result, Texas’s average price per unit rose by 72.6% annually from $85,378 per unit to $147,329 per unit in Q4 2021.

Texas Seniors Housing Median Price per Unit
(Seniors Housing & Nursing Care)
 2021_YearEnd_SrHousing_MedianPrice

Sales volumes increased in the third quarter of 2021, but dropped in the fourth quarter. There are more distressed properties coming to the market. Buyers’ interest has declined over the last year, but is starting to pick up again. More buyers are looking for investment opportunities than there are available offerings. Many owners of the struggling facilities are using federal and state aids and are not prepared to sell just yet.

Texas Seniors Housing Sales Volume ($)
(Seniors Housing & Nursing Care)
2021_YearEnd_SrHousing_SalesVolume
 
Texas Seniors Housing Cap Rates ($)
(Seniors Housing & Nursing Care)
2021_YearEnd_SrHousing_CapRates

Cap Rates

According to Real Capital Analytics, U.S. cap rates declined in the second half of 2021, while Texas cap rates remained steady at 5.0%.

Construction

Austin and Dallas had more seniors housing units under construction in Q4 2021 than in Q4 2020, while Houston and San Antonio had less. In addition, statewide construction of Skilled Nursing Facilities (SNF) nearly stopped in the last quarter. There were only 90 nursing care units under construction in the Dallas metro in Q4 2021.

Seniors Housing Units Under Construction

2021_YearEnd_SrHousing_Units Under Construction

Nursing Care Units Under Construction

2021_YearEnd_NursingCare_Units Under Construction

 

   SilverHillsAssistedLiving  
     
 
Silver Hills Assisted Living

Colliers is pleased to offer for sale the Silver Hills Assisted Living, a 23,480 square foot assisted living facility, located at 23164 Landrum Village Drive in Montgomery, Texas. The property sits on 5.36 acres.

 
 

 

Please visit the Texas Seniors Housing Team page to learn more. 


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2021 | Year-End Texas Seniors Housing & Care Research & Forecast Report

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Related Experts

Lisa Bridges

Director of Market Research

Houston

Lisa joined Colliers in 2010 as Director of Market Research and has 37 years of commercial real estate experience. Lisa initiates proactive market research projects to further the business goals of the company. She writes and prepares 29 market reports annually, including quarterly reports on Houston's retail, office, industrial and healthcare properties.  Further, she prepares statistical ownership reports for various clients as well as an annual Houston Economic Overview. Lisa also creates PowerPoint market presentations, trade journal articles, and other marketing materials supporting the company's business endeavors. She works with senior management in planning the company's marketing strategy and public relations support for local and national conferences, luncheon meetings, recruitment programs, and special events.  Lisa works closely with the company's brokers to develop effective custom market research material specific to existing and potential clients.

Lisa serves on the Colliers Editorial Board, the Colliers U.S. Research Council, and is a recipient of the Colliers Researcher of the Year Award.

Lisa earned the Commercial Property Research Certification (CPRC) from Colliers University.  CPRC is the first and only accreditation for commercial real estate research professionals. It offers a professional development path to increase strategic and tactical expertise in marketing/research, knowledge of the industry and capabilities with commercial real estate tools.

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Elena Bakina

Senior Vice President

Houston - The Woodlands

Elena's area of expertise is in the healthcare and senior housing sectors of real estate. She also has experience in corporate office, life science, retail, land transactions and investment sales. Her clients include physicians, multispecialty groups, hospitals, developers, senior housing operators and owners in addition to private investors. Prior to joining Colliers in 2014, Elena was a Senior Healthcare Real Estate Advisor with Coldwell Banker Commercial Healthcare Services Group. Elena's past career as a cancer research scientist with the world’s best cancer centers and research institutions has led her to choose her core areas of specialization. Being actively involved with the healthcare industry through the American College of Healthcare Executives (ACHE) and the Medical Group Management Association (MGMA), helps her to stay updated with the needs of this industry and to better serve her clients.

The most rewarding part of her job is developing relationships with clients and gaining their trust and confidence as their real estate advisor. In regards to real estate transactions, what she enjoy most of all is research, analysis and negotiations.

Prior to moving to the Houston area, Elena lived in many Asian and European countries, which helped her develop a deep understanding of various cultures. Elena enjoys serving Houston’s multicultural community. She  also attended EXPO REAL in Germany several times to promote acquisition opportunities to foreign markets.

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