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2021 | Mid-Year Texas Seniors Housing & Care Research & Forecast Report

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Key Takeaways
  • Occupancy up quarter over quarter, but down annually
  • Absorption increased quarterly and annually
  • Average rents rose over the year and over the quarter
  • New supply increased over the quarter and year-over-year
  • Sales volume still below pre-pandemic levels
Senior Housing (includes IL and AL Majority)
 2021_MidYear_SrHousing_Occupancy Rates    2021_MidYear_SrHousing_Net Absorption
 2021_MidYear_SrHousing_Under Construction    2021_MidYear_SrHousing_Monthly Rent
 
Nursing Care
2021_MidYear_NursingCare_Occupancy Rates    2021_MidYear_NursingCare_Net Absorption 
 2021_MidYear_NursingCare_Under Construction    2021_MidYear_NursingCare_Monthly Rent
 
Texas Highlights

Texas’ 2020 population reached over 29.3 million, an increase of 6.9% over the last five years. The population is forecasted to increase 7.4% between 2020 and 2025, adding 2.2 million residents. The demographic representing the largest segment of population are 5-9 years (7.42%) and 25 to 29 years (7.4%). Seniors 65 and older represent 13.2 percent of Texas’ population, or 3.9 million residents. The population segment with the largest growth between 2015 and 2020 are seniors 70-74 years old, growing 31 percent.

Market Indicators
2021_MidYear_SrHousing_Market Indicators
 
Historic Comparison - Seniors Housing only
2021_MidYear_SrHousing_Historic Comparison

Texas Population by Age Cohort

2021_MidYear_SrHousing_TX Population

 

The Texas overall occupancy rate decreased 460 basis points year-over-year, but increased 60 basis points on a quarterly basis. The average monthly rent rose 1.8 percent on an annual basis from $3,762 to $3,831.

Pricing & Sales Volume

Average sales prices for the different senior care sectors experienced a spike in Q1 2021, but continued to decline in Q2. As a result, Texas’s average price per unit fell by 17.4% annually to $105,222 per unit in Q2 2021.

According to Senior Care Investor, Assisted Living (AL) reported the most dramatic decline in prices in 2020. Independent Living (IL), which represents a smaller market, had minimal effects from the pandemic, with only a slight decrease in average price. IL residents stay in the communities longer, are younger and healthier, and therefore the labor costs in those communities are smaller. However, increased construction volumes of IL communities affect the supply and demand in this sector.

Texas Seniors Housing Median Price per Unit
(Seniors Housing & Nursing Care)

2021_MidYear_SrHousing_Median Price

Sales volumes increased in the first two quarters of 2021, but are still much lower than pre-pandemic levels. There are more distressed properties coming to the market. Buyers’ interest has declined over the last year, but is starting to pick up again. More buyers are looking for investment opportunities than there are available offerings. Many owners of the struggling facilities are using federal and state aids and are not prepared to sell just yet.

Texas Seniors Housing Sales Volume ($)
(Seniors Housing & Nursing Care)

2021_MidYear_SrHousing_Sales Volume

Cap Rates

Senior Care Investor reported an increase in cap rates, as much as 40 basis points to 13.1% for Skilled Nursing Facilities (SNF) in 2020. The average cap rate for AL has dropped by 15 basis points to 7.75% in the last four quarters. The average cap rates for IL communities have barely changed and the reported average is 7.7%.

Construction

Except for the Austin metro, all Texas major metros had fewer seniors housing units under construction in Q2 2021 than in Q2 2020. In addition, construction of Skilled Nursing Facilities (SNF) nearly stopped in the last quarter. There were only a few nursing care units under construction in the Dallas metro this quarter.

It looks like construction volume is going to pick up by year-end. There are more sites that are planned and in pre-construction phases now. The majority of these sites have IL, AL and MC units.

Seniors Housing Units Under Construction

2021_MidYear_SrHousing_Units Under Construction
Nursing Care Units Under Construction

2021_MidYear_NursingCare_Units Under Construction

Executive Summary

Commentary by Elena Bakina, PhD, CCIM

When the COVID-19 pandemic hit in 2020, the Seniors Housing and Care industry had already been experiencing many challenges due to pockets of overbuilding, rising operating costs and labor shortages. During 2020, operational costs and labor shortages grew even higher. Temporary lockdowns and visiting restrictions, in addition to the lives claimed by the pandemic, contributed to the process of unprecedented decline in occupancy in the long-term care facilities and senior living communities. Locked down in their units and unable to have any visitors, seniors felt isolated and often depressed, contributing to a higher mortality rate.

At the beginning of 2021, some COVID restrictions were lifted, and vaccines became available, which brought optimism that the industry would recover. The facilities were able to offer the residents some of their activities once again. Operators implemented new technologies and innovations that helped keep the facilities safe and improve socializing among the residents.

The Senior Living industry has begun to show signs of a slow recovery in Q2 2021 from the pandemic hit last year. There has been a slight rise in occupancy and positive absorption for the first time in a year.

Although Texas markets still have one of the lowest occupancy rates in the country, the job market, access to high-quality healthcare and low cost of living, among other factors, will continue to support population growth in Texas. In addition, the unprecedented vibrant residential real estate market is one of the factors influencing seniors’ decision to move into senior living communities.

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Tranquility Assisted Living in Houston

Colliers is pleased to announce the sale of Tranquility Assisted Living, a 8,487 square foot assisted living facility, located at 9006 Poco Road in Houston, Texas. The buyer was Tranquility Properties. Elena Bakina of Colliers represented the seller, Tranquility Personal Care Home, in the transaction. The two building, assisted living facility is situated on 0.57 acres in close proximity to Memorial Hermann’s Memorial City Hospital in West Houston.

 
 

 

Please visit the Texas Seniors Housing Team page to learn more. 


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2021 | Mid-Year Texas Seniors Housing & Care Research & Forecast Report

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Related Experts

Lisa Bridges

Director of Market Research

Houston

Lisa joined Colliers in 2010 as Director of Market Research and has 37 years of commercial real estate experience. Lisa initiates proactive market research projects to further the business goals of the company. She writes and prepares 29 market reports annually, including quarterly reports on Houston's retail, office, industrial and healthcare properties.  Further, she prepares statistical ownership reports for various clients as well as an annual Houston Economic Overview. Lisa also creates PowerPoint market presentations, trade journal articles, and other marketing materials supporting the company's business endeavors. She works with senior management in planning the company's marketing strategy and public relations support for local and national conferences, luncheon meetings, recruitment programs, and special events.  Lisa works closely with the company's brokers to develop effective custom market research material specific to existing and potential clients.

Lisa serves on the Colliers Editorial Board, the Colliers U.S. Research Council, and is a recipient of the Colliers Researcher of the Year Award.

Lisa earned the Commercial Property Research Certification (CPRC) from Colliers University.  CPRC is the first and only accreditation for commercial real estate research professionals. It offers a professional development path to increase strategic and tactical expertise in marketing/research, knowledge of the industry and capabilities with commercial real estate tools.

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Elena Bakina

Senior Vice President

Houston - The Woodlands

Elena's area of expertise is in the healthcare and senior housing sectors of real estate. She also has experience in corporate office, life science, retail, land transactions and investment sales. Her clients include physicians, multispecialty groups, hospitals, developers, senior housing operators and owners in addition to private investors. Prior to joining Colliers in 2014, Elena was a Senior Healthcare Real Estate Advisor with Coldwell Banker Commercial Healthcare Services Group. Elena's past career as a cancer research scientist with the world’s best cancer centers and research institutions has led her to choose her core areas of specialization. Being actively involved with the healthcare industry through the American College of Healthcare Executives (ACHE) and the Medical Group Management Association (MGMA), helps her to stay updated with the needs of this industry and to better serve her clients.

The most rewarding part of her job is developing relationships with clients and gaining their trust and confidence as their real estate advisor. In regards to real estate transactions, what she enjoy most of all is research, analysis and negotiations.

Prior to moving to the Houston area, Elena lived in many Asian and European countries, which helped her develop a deep understanding of various cultures. Elena enjoys serving Houston’s multicultural community. She  also attended EXPO REAL in Germany several times to promote acquisition opportunities to foreign markets.

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