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Oahu Retail Summary Market Report Q42019

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Market Resiliency is Tested as Store Closures Stall Continued Growth

Key Takeaways

  • For the first time in five years, Oahu’s retail market posted a loss of 41,717 square feet of negative net absorption as vacancy rates rose to 5.37%.
  • Luckily, for Oahu retail centers, the majority of the vacated storefronts were quickly replaced by new tenants waiting in the wings. Even for the former Sears store at Windward Mall, there are rumors that several mid-box tenants are in active negotiations to fill portions of this space.
  • The recent announcement of pending closures by Pier 1 and Bed Bath & Beyond will place another 43,000 square feet of vacancy onto the market as its resiliency is again tested.
  • For Hawaii, visitor arrival counts were projected to exceed 10 million for 2019, setting an all-time high for the state. Oahu’s hospitality industry benefited from a new record when it welcomed nearly 5.2 million visitors for the first ten months of the year.
  • For the second consecutive year, the October 2019 unemployment rate increased. Much of these job losses were attributed to the retail sector losing 3,000 positions over the past year.
  • Colliers anticipates store closings will occur resulting in a second consecutive year of negative net absorption. Vacancy rates are forecasted to rise to near 6.0% by year-end 2020.

Summary Statistics

4Q2019 Retail Market

 YTD Net Absorption:  (41,717) SF
 Vacancy Rate:  5.37% 
 Avg. Asking Rent Range:  $3.60-$4.66 PSF/Mo 
 Avg. Asking Rent NNN:  $4.19 PSF/Mo 
 Avg. Operating Exp.:  $1.41 PSF/Mo

Hawaii Retail Market Report

Oahu Retail Summary Market Report Q42019

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Related Experts

Mike Hamasu

Research & Consulting Director

Hawaii - Honolulu

Michael brings to Colliers Monroe Friedlander, Inc. over 25 years of marketing and marketing research experience. Michael has directed research efforts at commercial brokerages with a focus on providing information to assist in strategic decision making for real estate investors and brokerage clientele. This effort reported on nearly 600 million square feet of commercial/industrial properties in the San Francisco Bay Area.

Having been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Real Estate Forum and Commercial Property News as well as other regional publications, Michael has been recognized for his detailed analysis of the commercial real estate marketplace and has  become the recognized source for commercial real estate trend analysis and forecasts for Hawaii’s marketplace.

In addition to managing the primary and secondary research efforts in the collection of commercial office, retail and industrial market information and statistics, Michael established the company’s real estate consulting division. Utilizing market factors such as: vacancy rates, absorption, net effective rents, and sales comparables, this consulting unit is able to advise developers, investors, property owners, and tenants on current and projected market trends.

Whitney Cressman Limited — Commercial Real Estate Marketing Research Director
Directed brokerage, internal research efforts, and generated real estate consulting assignments at a busy boutique firm in San Francisco Bay area. Served as the principal liaison to press and media. Analyzed office, retail, and development site criteria for market demand and feasibility.

Cushman & Wakefield — Commercial Real Estate Research Services Manager
Oversaw the compilation of market analytics for 600 million square foot commercial and industrial markets throughout the San Francisco Bay area. Recognized nationally and regionally for innovative data management and analysis. Selected to serve on a national career development board for research services. Directed research staff of 12 in five Bay area markets.
Identified by brokers as a manager achieving service excellence.

• Development Feasibility Analysis
• Market Demand and Absorption Report
• Broker Opinion of Value 
• Highest and Best Use Studies
• Real Estate Portfolio Analysis
• Strategic Positioning Study
• Market Rent and Vacancy Forecasts

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