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Greater Phoenix retail vacancy returns to pre-pandemic level

Growth in population and consumer spending drives dynamic market

PHOENIX - Dynamic growth in population and increased consumer spending are factors driving improvement in the Greater Phoenix retail real estate market. During third quarter, vacancy dropped to 7.2 percent, reaching pre-pandemic 2019 levels.

Retail consumer spending in Greater Phoenix increased by 18.6 percent at the end of September, compared to January 2020. Revenue generated by retail sales tax in Phoenix was up 19 percent from a year earlier and up 29 percent from the three-year average. 

Retail space vacancy dropped 20 basis points during third quarter while net absorption climbed to 286,386 square feet. The Downtown submarket experienced the largest decrease in vacancy both over-the-quarter and year-over-year, declining to 6.6 percent. West Valley posts the smallest vacancy for the third consecutive quarter at just 4.9 percent. North Phoenix has the highest vacancy with 9.7 percent, marking a 60-basis-point increase year-over year, but a 70-basis-point decrease over-the-quarter.

Net absorption outpaced second quarter and brought the year-to-date total to 786,071 square feet. Year-to-date net absorption surpassed the total posted in 2019. The number of new transactions signed during third quarter was 18 percent higher than the same time last year, which strongly indicates Phoenix’s recovery from the pandemic. Mind 24/7 signed three new tenant leases throughout the metropolitan area in the third quarter. The company signed its largest transaction in September for a former LA Fitness property at 10046 N. Metro Parkway.

Rental rates continued to grow, rising 2.4 percent year-over-year to finish third quarter at an average of $14.94 per square foot. Every submarket, with the exception of the Airport Area, experienced year-over-year increases. Scottsdale and West Valley submarkets posted the largest year-over-year rental rate increases, jumping 10.5 and 9.6 percent, respectively. Scottsdale had the largest decrease in rates during 2020 and bounced back after being impacted by the pandemic. The Scottsdale submarket maintains the highest rental rates, finishing third quarter at $23.98 per square foot. 

Construction of new retail developments decreased during third quarter with just 66,910 square feet completed and added to inventory. This was the lowest amount of new deliveries in a single quarter in the past five years. During 2021 the market added 496,386 square feet in new deliveries. Currently, another 473,184 square feet are under construction. New construction is heavily focused in the East Valley and West Valley, which comprise 69 percent of total construction. New projects are 92 percent pre-leased, which shows that developers are not pursuing speculative projects without heavy tenant commitment. 

Retail product type investment sales have improved significantly. Volume of sales in third quarter hit a level equivalent to 56 percent of entire 2020 performance. Third quarter brought $510 million in retail property sales, which created a year-to-date sales volume of $1.147 billion. Third quarter sales volume was 191 percent higher than a year ago. The median price paid for square foot reached $204. The largest transaction during third quarter was the $50.2 million sale of Crossroads Towne Center, a 245-million-960-square-foot shopping center at the corner of Gilbert Road and Loop 202. 

The forecast for retail real estate is very optimistic. The population continues to grow as people relocate to Arizona. The metro area became a focal point for new restaurant concepts and retail innovations as the population expands.

About Colliers
Colliers (NASDAQ, TSX: CIGI) is a leading diversified professional services and investment management company. With operations in 66 countries, our more than 15,000 enterprising professionals work collaboratively to provide expert advice to real estate occupiers, owners and investors. For more than 25 years, our experienced leadership with significant insider ownership has delivered compound annual investment returns of almost 20% for shareholders. With annualized revenues to $3.3 billion ($3.6 billion including affiliates) and $45 billion of assets under management, we maximize the potential of property and accelerate the success of our clients and our people. Learn more at corporate.colliers.com, Twitter @Colliers or LinkedIn.

Colliers in Arizona has served clients locally and globally for more than 40 years.

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Phillip Hernandez

Senior Research Manager, Arizona

Phoenix

As research manager for Colliers in Arizona, Phillip Hernandez is responsible for proactively developing and implementing research objectives and directing all research activity for the Arizona offices.

He provides leading-edge, thought-provoking research and analysis of market data for use in producing quarterly statistical market reports for each property discipline, as well as other ad hoc reports, research projects and presentations. Phillip analyzes and interprets real estate trends and maintains a database of economic indicators to provide forecasts.

Regardless of the property type or sector, Phillip believes each has a story to tell and that data provides the opportunity to redefine the narrative. With a background in location analytics, he is highly experienced in interpreting complex data sets. Using the latest technology, Phillip developed a system to blend analytics with a visually attractive approach to bring data to life.

Focusing on business development, he leverages market intelligence and insights for thought leadership content strategy in support of client engagement. His goal is to strategically align research and business development efforts and present research in an easily digestible format that promotes Colliers’ market share and revenue growth.

Colleagues describe Phillip as a brilliant storyteller and a passionate, creative and experienced professional.

Prior to joining Colliers, he served as a business analyst at CBRE, where he specialized in creating tailored research reports, as well as unique and interactive applications and dashboards that elevated the market position of assets. Phillip delivered weekly research updates, with relevant lease and sale comps, custom competitive sets and current market activity.

He provided complex market and trend analyses, monitored an extensive database of proprietary market data, and delivered custom quarterly and annual reports that were strategically positioned towards targeted clients. He also led weekly department research meetings to develop initiatives surrounding market trends, produce innovative industry solutions and analyze client-centric objectives.

Previously, Phillip was a GIS analyst for the central region of CBRE. Working exclusively with top-performing markets, he created unique models that illustrated custom real estate datasets through location analytics. Phillip produced high-quality geographic and demographic maps, and investigated multiple approaches to storytelling through map and market analytics.

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