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EMEA City Office Snapshot | Q4 2021

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Read more about occupier sentiment recovery in our latest snapshot

A continued recovery in take-up across European markets in the second half of 2021 saw net-absorption expand further in Q4 2021. EMEA’s take-up upward trajectory continued over Q4, with (12-month rolling) activity up +12.7% quarter-on-quarter (q/q), enabling net-absorption to rise 53 basis points above the bottom of the market witnessed in Q1 2021. Improving occupier sentiment is feeding through into strong pre-letting activity, a resurgence of larger deals and improving occupancy rates. However, take-up activity in several markets remains below pre-pandemic levels despite a strong year-end rally.

Our EMEA (12-month rolling) completions index increased +25.3% (y/y) as a total of 6.36mn sqm of new office space completed in 2021. Vacant space continued to climb, but the weighted average vacancy rate is only 7.6%, with 72% of markets below the 10% vacancy threshold. Limited changes in market conditions were recorded - some 44% of markets remain tenant-favourable, and the outlook to Q4 2022 is almost identical at 43% of markets. Headline rental values remained robust over Q4 2021, with 78% of markets indicating stable conditions, albeit many are propped up by incentives. In contrast, 16% of markets recorded rental growth for prime assets in CBD locations against a backdrop of low availability.

Looking forward, net-absorption should accelerate but could be hampered by delays to planned developments amidst rising construction costs. This could amplify supply-demand imbalances as vacancy continues to trend downwards. Our 12-month outlook supports this, highlighting that 58% of markets expect either contractionary (16%) or no movement (42%) in vacancy. Landlord-favourable markets are expected to diminish to 11% over the same period (down from 16% in Q4 2021) as they convert to neutral conditions. This points to 2022 entering a new phase of rebalancing as neutral markets (46%) leapfrog tenant-favourable markets (43%), the latter having held sway over the last 15 months. The flight to quality will continue, with 33% of markets expecting further uplift in prime rents for assets CBD locations over the course of 2022.

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EMEA City Office Snapshot | Q4 2021

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United Kingdom

Damian Harrington

Head of Global Capital Markets Research | EMEA Head of Research

London - West End

I currently have a joint role as a Director Colliers, as both Head of EMEA Research, and Head of Global Capital Markets Research.  I am also part of  our EMEA Location Strategy team.

I have worked within the real estate profession  for over 20 years, living and working from various locations across EMEA including London, Dubai, Prague, Helsinki and Amsterdam. My work and student experiences expanded my horizon to include India and the US. 

I use my experience and analytical skills to take a forward looking view of market opportunities & challenges impacting the industry on behalf of internal and external clients.  During my career I have written research /generated analysis of markets across all asset class types - from residential to offices, retail to logistics and hotels to niche sectors such as life sciences, air cargo and data centres.   I have analysed a variety of subjects and subject matter relevanmt to our industry, examining the impact on real estate such as the changing nature of global capital and the impact on global capital flows, the impact of e-commerce and near/off-shoring on global industrial and logistics markets and the changing nature of the energy and hydrocarbon industry. In addition to developing a view of markets at a very high-level,  I have conducted multiple studies examing the  micro-meso location factors critical in supporting the creation of planning policy at city/regional level, and in supporting investment and occupier decisions on key projects across EMEA, in addition to providing a strategic overview of multiple- markets and locations  as part of the decision making process. 

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Istvan Toth

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EMEA Headquarters

I've been in the real estate industry since 2005 and joined Colliers as a data scientist in their EMEA research team in 2018. In my career I have worked across the various property sectors and I have viewed at the markets from both the occupational and investment perspective. Having obtained a widespread understanding of the European property markets, I am currently focusing on making sure to transform raw RE market data into meaningful and forward thinking analyses and reports.

"Data powers everything that we do."

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Lewis Rapley

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Lewis began his career in commercial real estate in April 2018 after graduating in 2017 from the University of Leeds with a BA in Human Geography and an MSc in GIS (Geographical Information Systems). At Colliers, he is responsible for creating EMEA-level office and industrial/logistics snapshots while monitoring core market data, KPIs and local market commentaries. Alongside his primary duties, he collaborates with local research and internal business teams, answering any ad-hoc requests to help drive the EMEA business. 

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Peter Leyburn

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Peter is Head of Enterprise Client Experience, Occupier Services EMEA. He is focussed on ensuring Colliers' Occupier Services enterprise clients are receiving best-in-class solutions to manage their organisations and portfolios.

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In addition, Peter is also responsible for leading Colliers EMEA Cross Border Tenant Representation, coordinating the in-country Tenant Rep teams to deliver multi-market solutions to our occupier clients.

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Andrew Hallissey

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Well respected within the industry, Andrew is an Executive Managing Director with over 20 years of global experience within Corporate Real Estate. Andrew has a wealth of knowledge having advised dozens of Fortune 500 companies throughout the world on developing real estate transformation solutions.

As Executive Managing Director of EMEA Occupier Services.  Andrew drives strategy, client service delivery and spearheads the growth of Colliers’ occupier business within the EMEA region.

Andrew leads integrated service delivery for all occupier clients specialising in corporate real estate services, portfolio strategy, transaction management, brokerage, lease administration, project management, workplace services, and facilities management outsourcing advisory across the EMEA region.

Prior to joining Colliers, Andrew worked for CBRE where he has held senior leadership roles within their Global Workplace Solutions business in Chicago, Hong Kong, New York and London.  He has gained extensive global experience advising large corporations on their global real estate organization and strategy over the last 18 years, having worked across EMEA, North America and Asia Pacific.  Andrew also currently serves on the global board of directors of Corenet, the leading global association for the corporate real estate profession.

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