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EMEA Industrial & Logistics Hubs | February 2021

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EMEA's 2020 Industrial & Logistics take-up was up +22.6% y/y, fuelled by increasing logistics demand from servicing online retail growth. Despite some localised record volumes, supply-demand imbalances continue to hinder take-up. Latent demand will continue to drive take-up until significant supply filters through.

EMEA's weighted vacancy remains incredibly tight, at 5.5% by year-end – only 10-bps higher (y/y) due to new stock deployment in H2 2020. Some 67% of markets expect vacancy to remain flat in the next twelve months. The remainder expect vacancy to contract. In-line with vacancy trends, we anticipate growth in our prime headline rental index will slow-down and start flattening off in 2021, although core logistics and distribution corridors will remain hotbeds for rental growth in 2021. 

With such strong market fundamentals in place, landlord-favourable markets ended 2020 with a 53% majority and are forecast to expand to a 59% coverage by year-end 2021.

Finally, Brexit. With the UK and EU finally settling on a new free trade agreement, the elimination of potential high tariffs will enable trade flows to stabilise. Although freight distribution to Ireland has been diverted away from the UK land bridge into new routes via France, the higher cost of doing is likely to see the traditional UK land bridge route pick up in trade once the new bureaucracy and red-tape hurdles are overcome.  There are no significant implications for European/UK logistics freight movement and activity around key continental hubs mid-longer term.
 

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EMEA Industrial & Logistics Hubs | February 2021

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Related Experts
United Kingdom

Damian Harrington

Head of Research

London - West End

Damian Harrington is a Director and Head of Research for both Global Capital Markets and EMEA at Colliers. He has over 20 years of experience in the real estate industry living and working from various locations across EMEA including London, Dubai, Prague, Helsinki and Amsterdam. Damian is responsible for producing research for internal and external clients. His expertise helps to provide clients with global capital market trends and analysis, and connects them with strategic and actionable insights, such as the changing nature of global capital and the impact on global capital flows. Damian has produced numerous research papers and generated analysis of markets across all asset types - from residential to offices, retail to logistics and hotels to niche sectors such as life sciences, air cargo and data centres. Damian is a member of the EMEA location strategy team and a key member of Colliers ESG focus group.  He speaks regularly at internal global conferences, external industry events hosted by GRI, ULI and other key industry bodies, plus key annual events such as MIPIM and EXPO REAL.

Damian holds a Masters degree in European Property Development and Planning from University College London, a BPI Bachelor of Planning from the University of Amsterdam and a BA (Hons) in Town and Country Planning from Manchester University. He is also a qualified surveyor, holding an MRICS with the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors.

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United Kingdom

Lewis Rapley

EMEA Research Analyst

EMEA Headquarters

Lewis began his career in commercial real estate in April 2018 after graduating in 2017 from the University of Leeds with a BA in Human Geography and an MSc in GIS (Geographical Information Systems). At Colliers, he is responsible for creating EMEA-level office and industrial/logistics snapshots while monitoring core market data, KPIs and local market commentaries. Alongside his primary duties, he collaborates with local research and internal business teams, answering any ad-hoc requests to help drive the EMEA business. 

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Czech Republic

Karel Stransky

Director EMEA Corporate Solutions

Prague

I have obtained Master's Degree in Geography from Masaryk University in Brno in 1984 and  MBA from Sheffield Hallam  University in 1997. 

First ten years of my proffesional Iife I  worked as a planner both in  private consulting   as well as  for the City of Brno as a Deputy Chief Architect heading Urban Development & Renewal Team. There I  have gained not only the understanding of how planning impacts the development but also  how to proactively use planning policies to initiate and support developments in both greenfields and brownfields. I had also studied relevant planing practices in the UK, Netherlands, USA and Japan.  

I joined Bovis P&O Team in Brno in 1994 shortly after this  developer started to  build Czech Technology Park, which was  one of the first industrial developments in Central Europe  in cooperation between the City  and Technical University. My mission  was to  promote this development, identify potential customers,  work with the construction team  in order to accomodate the needs of the tenants and manage the leaase transaction on behalf of the developer. I worked with companies such as Siemens or Silicon Graphics  , which became the first tenants of this development.

In 1996 I joined Colliers International as Senior Property Consultant to build   the Industrial Real Estate Agency in the Czech Republic.

I have grown and managed the industrial team of Colliers up till 2009 during which period this team became leader in the Czech industrial   market having  transacted  over 3 milion sq m of industrial floor space and land  both on behalf of the occupiers as well as the landlords.  Most of the customers were international companies such as Prologis, AIG Lincoln, Ctp or Goodman on the landlord side or Bridgestone, VF Europe,  Johnson Controls, Schenker, DSV, Gebruder Weiss, DHL,  Moduslink and many others on the occupier side . 

During this period I have also worked on behalf of the my  international occupier clients Bridgestone and Moduslink in the other European markets such as Spain or France as well as various countries of Central Europe.

 Shortly after the begining of financial crisis in the early 2009 I became Managing Director of Colliers Czech Republic and took the team through the trubled, loses making period and transformed it to the profitable business. 

In the midle of 2011 I have joined newly formed Corporate Solutions team in London to accomodate the needs of my existing as well as new industrial and manufacturing  customers across EMEA.  Since then I have   actively managed  industrial and manufactuirng related projects   in 17  countries of Europe, US  and Asia   covering the whole business life of the real estate: from location consulting through lease or freehold acquisition, portfolio management  to the building dissposals. 

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