With recent news of a breakthrough in the availability of a COVID-19 vaccine coming sooner than expected, the economic recovery has received a significant shot in the arm, globally and in Europe. With the Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine to start distribution by Christmas, and likely to be 90% effective, this paves the way for national and European governments to get on top of the pandemic going into the new year.
EEA30 GDP (EU27 + the UK, Switzerland and Norway) grew by a positive 8.9% in Q3 (Q/Q) according to Oxford Economics, supporting a broader rebound in H2 2020 and a return to economic growth in 2021. Yet there is still much uncertainty over the future path of economies - notably the looming Brexit transition negotiations and the mid-to-long-term management of the pandemic. Easing lockdown measures and managing the ‘winding down’ of European stimulus and furlough packages, represent significant challenges for the real economy in 2021. It will be a year of mixed fortunes, but the light at the end of the tunnel is getting much brighter, with EEA30 GDP expected to grow by 4.9%.