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What does Biden victory in U.S. election mean for commercial real estate in EMEA?

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Now that the US Election has been decided in favour of Joe Biden and the Democratic Party,  Damian Harrington, Colliers’ Head of EMEA Research comments on the implications for global commercial property in an EMEA context:

Three key implications will impact economies and commercial real estate in the EMEA region, according to Harrington:

International Trade | Reduced tariffs will support European import and export business, supporting and stabilising demand for industrial real estate. Biden’s camp has made it clear that it would take concrete steps to end what they call Trump’s ‘artificial trade war’ with the EU while working to address imbalances in trade between the partners. Reparation of NATO and alliance relationships should take much short-term economic and trade uncertainty off the agenda, but this will not change the need for Europe to become more independent and absorb the cost of its own security. This will come in the form of higher taxes over the mid-term, placing a drag on economic output, but will enable the European region to develop trade partnerships both West and East. Divisions over Iran should become less stark under Biden, negating the pressure the UK may have faced to split from European allies or risk tougher US sanctions. On the flipside, a future US - UK trade deal hangs in the balance, dependent upon the process and result of the imminent UK – EU trade deal.

Corporate Investment | European investment levels will be impacted by the extent to which Biden gets to enact regulatory and tax changes. If Biden is able to enact change, a larger ($2 billion) fiscal stimulus will likely counteract a higher taxation and regulatory burden, particularly for the U.S. consumer, limiting the impact on European export demand. However, tax changes could result in weaker US earnings short-term, particularly for US tech stock. Given the prevalence of the US tech sector in European office markets, especially the fabled “FAMANG” group (Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Netflix, Google), lower US FDI into EMEA could transpire, reducing European office demand. Given that the tech sector accounts for 15% of office-based employees and 18% of the office-based economy in European cities, this is one to watch. That said, European corporates should benefit from a stronger bounce back in earnings than their US peers in 2021, providing the opportunity to expand their corporate footprints, particularly in areas such as renewable energy.

Climate Change | Improved energy efficiency has major implications for real estate use, flexibility/adaptability and location and particularly for construction, project and asset management. This is being amplified by the need for cities to come to terms with how to operate in a new, post-COVID ‘normal’. A Biden victory not only supports the global climate change agenda, but also accelerates the growth of the burgeoning renewable energy sector, which has been a key component of FDI activity across EMEA in recent years. Renewable energy is one of the key pillars of the new, long-term E.U. 2027 budget to generate an extra 500 GW of renewable power, alongside 3 million new hybrid vehicle charging points and 1.000 hydrogen stations by 2030. Legislation is already coming into play in the Netherlands, with the UK to follow, restricting commercial leasing to assets that meet high energy efficiency standards. Given their high dependence on power, Data Centre assets are likely to come under scrutiny as to their long-term Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance (ESG) credentials.

“A Biden victory supports the growth and adoption of more consistent ESG strategies across North America and Europe, if not globally, given China’s surprise September announcement that it aims to ‘decarbonise’ by 2060.

“This creates a foundation for global investment managers to increase the weighting of sustainable real estate assets in their portfolio, which is of increasing relevance to corporate occupiers and equity stakeholders.

“Boris Johnson, recently set out his plan for a green industrial revolution in anticipation of the UK hosting the UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26). The UK will also join 16 countries to have launched green gilts, including Germany and Sweden – both of which saw their initial green gilt issues oversubscribed – demonstrating the strong and growing appetite for ESG investments,” says Harrington in conclusion.

Read more in A Tale of Two Outcomes Part 2 where we have set out an outlook on what this means for the US, AsiaPac and EMEA regions, but in the clear context that the effectiveness of Biden’s first-term could change significantly between now and his inauguration.


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United Kingdom

Damian Harrington

Head of Research

London - West End

Damian Harrington is a Director and Head of Research for both Global Capital Markets and EMEA at Colliers. He has over 20 years of experience in the real estate industry living and working from various locations across EMEA including London, Dubai, Prague, Helsinki and Amsterdam. Damian is responsible for producing research for internal and external clients. His expertise helps to provide clients with global capital market trends and analysis, and connects them with strategic and actionable insights, such as the changing nature of global capital and the impact on global capital flows. Damian has produced numerous research papers and generated analysis of markets across all asset types - from residential to offices, retail to logistics and hotels to niche sectors such as life sciences, air cargo and data centres. Damian is a member of the EMEA location strategy team and a key member of Colliers ESG focus group.  He speaks regularly at internal global conferences, external industry events hosted by GRI, ULI and other key industry bodies, plus key annual events such as MIPIM and EXPO REAL.

Damian holds a Masters degree in European Property Development and Planning from University College London, a BPI Bachelor of Planning from the University of Amsterdam and a BA (Hons) in Town and Country Planning from Manchester University. He is also a qualified surveyor, holding an MRICS with the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors.

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Poland

Aleksandra Wasilewska

PR Director | EMEA

Warsaw

I have 16 year experience in PR and marketing communication. I worked among others for NFI Magna Polonia; Skanska Polska; Apsys Polska and Polish Council of ShoppingCentres. I implemented projects from the field of consumer marketing; market research; corporate communication; as well as brand building; positioning and evolution in Skanska  and Apsys. I am the author of numerous articles on PR and marketing communication.

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