The Covid-19 outbreak has delivered a sharp economic and financial shock to EMEA and global markets. Firstly, the closure of half of China’s factories and production has had an evident impact on global supply chains, and especially on the economies of China and other Asian countries, that will continue through 2020. Activity along some of China’s transport routes fell by 20-40%. China’s imports are expected to suffer a year on year decline of 12% in the 1st quarter while world trade is expected to decline 7% in the 2nd quarter. This would leave world growth at around 2% in 2020, the slowest rate in a decade; growth will slide considerably compared to the 3.5% recorded in 2019. The recent spat over oil prices between OPEC and Russia has served further to exacerbate the sense of panic. However, the currently much lower petrol price could help production to recover in Asia.
