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The hotel market could begin recovery this autumn if it restarts operations during the holiday season

Developers and investors are looking forward for the reopening

The hotel industry continues to remain attractive for developers and investors, despite uncertainties in the following period. Strongly affected by the coronavirus generated crisis, many hotel operators are counting on reopening during the holiday season to unblock operations and start recovery. The market could return to an occupancy rate of 50-60% for hotels operated by recognized brands towards the end of the year, in a scenario in which the epidemiological context remains stable or even starts improving.

In March, the first official month of pandemic, Romanian hotels recorded a 68% decline in the number of tourists, according to The National Institute of Statistics (INS) data. In Bucharest, the occupancy rate was only 15% in March and April, and most hotels closed their doors to economically cope with the significant decrease in turnover. The decline is higher compared to other parts of the world, considering that in Europe the number of tourists decreased by only 19% and worldwide the decrease was 57%, according to The World Tourism Organization.

The good news is that, in Romania, over 50% of the hospitality industry is ensured by domestic tourism, which has all the prerequisites to relaunch faster than international tourism. Regarding tourism in Bucharest, an important share of the demand, of over 60%, is driven by business tourism. Although it is possible for corporate tourists to change behavior, choosing, in some cases, online meetings at the expense of travel, we still expect this market segment to be the first to unlock the demand from foreign tourists, even in the very near future”, explains Raluca Buciuc, Partner & Head of Valuation Services and Hospitality Advisory Services at Colliers International.

Developing hotel sites continued their activity

In fact, funds allocated worldwide for the recovery of the economy will have direct consequences for the return of the hospitality industry. At local level, a package of specific measures for this industry has not yet been announced, which makes it difficult to implement a business plan for the reopening of hotels, but measures such as exemption from local taxes or the payment of income tax for a certain period aid for the payment of employees' salaries or the implementation of security measures could help operators get through this difficult period,  Colliers International consultants underline.

Hotel construction sites continued their activity during the quarantine caused by Covid-19. Owners of hotels, however, found themselves in an activity freeze with no clear outcome yet, even if they continued to remain operational or had to close their doors and take drastic measures like reducing or sending home their staff. On the positive side, they were able to benefit from measures taken by authorities to support businesses and from availability and flexibility from creditors that granted repayment deferrals and reformulated the business model in the new context”, says Anca Merdescu, Associate Director of Investment Services at Colliers International.

"Looking forward, there is still a lot of uncertainty driven by the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemics and the implications of travelling. However, if we were to take it from now, based on the fact that hotels business in Romania were in a growth phase before the current context and their leverage was not too high, the most likely effect we see in the near future will be reduced profits, in some cases significant ones, but at least in terms of hotels affiliated with international brands we do not expect more drastic situations like closing down or fire sales", concludes Anca Merdescu.


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Raluca Buciuc

Director | Partner | Romania

Bucharest

The 20 years in Colliers Bucharest Office offered me the chance to work in several departments as Office, Industrial and Valuation as assistant, junior or senior consultant and have a general look over the business. Since 2004 I have been working within the Valuation Department as specialist in residential mortgage valuation, development land and, in the last 10 years, in commercial properties. I have also get specialized in accommodation and leisure assets, as hotels, restaurants and spa centers. Today, as director I also coordonate the internal team in different projects as training, portfolio valuations or new business lines.

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Anca Merdescu

Associate Director Investment & Debt Advisory | Romania

Bucharest

As a senior team member I was in charge of a portfolio of over EUR 1bn in assets and coordinated the deal team for several financing transactions including a syndicated loan for refinancing one of the largest shopping mall in Bucharest, development of a medium-size  shopping center in Ploiesti,  several office buildings developments and existing office scheme in Bucharest and Cluj.

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