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Industrial and logistics real estate will be the investment market’s workhorse in 2021

2020 was a record year for I&L investment volumes with ca. EUR 3.3 Billion transacted and a 32% share of the total annual volumes according to “The CEE Industrial Scene  2020-2021” just released by Colliers. Capital from the APAC region secured a dominating 52% share of I&L volumes in the CEE region in 2020 followed by EMEA and US capital.

INVESTMENT 

The pandemic has had a notable impact on overall CEE investment activity in 2020, with total volumes ending  24% below those of 2019. International investors were disrupted from being able to travel and physically inspect properties, however this did not stop dominant interest from APAC investors targeting industrial & logistics assets. At the close, 2020 was a record year for industrial & logistics volumes, with ca. EUR 3.3 Billion transacted and a 32% share of total annual volumes.  

“The majority of investors looking at industrial & logistics investment product also prefer to acquire portfolios, platforms or opportunities with scalability. The ca. EUR 3.3 billion volume in 2020 consisted of approximately 45 transactions, giving an average deal size of over EUR 70 million.  Among these transactions, were some very notable portfolio deals, the largest of which was GLP acquiring the Goodman assets in CEE for ca. EUR 1 billion”, says Kevin Turpin, Regional Director of Research | CEE at Colliers. 

Capital from the APAC region, specifically from Singapore, China and South Korea, secured a dominating 52% share of I&L volumes. This was followed, some way behind, by EMEA and US capital with 16% and 14% respectively. 

VACANCY

Availability of space in the CEE region as a whole averages at ca. 5.9%.  Some developers are willing to build speculatively while others are under less pressure to do so and prefer the ‘build-to-suit’ route.   Availability in some locations within countries are very tight, particularly in the most sought after locations so, potential occupiers looking to enter the region or expand should ideally start the search process early to avoid disruption or delays to their plans.

DEMAND

Looking at gross demand for industrial and logistics space over 2020, we have recorded very strong activity, with the region recording ca. 9 million sq m, a YoY growth of almost 25% on average. Inline with 2019 trends, the Bucharest and Bratislava markets attracted  the majority of demand in their markets with 70% and 73% respectively. On the other hand, the Czech and Polish markets both saw greater levels of activity in their regional markets.

“By the end of 2020, the total transaction volume reached a record high of 5.4 million sq m – a record value for Poland’s market. The highest tenant activity was noted in Warsaw (1.2 million sq m in three zones) and Upper Silesia (1.07 million sq m), which noted a 79% growth in demand over 2019. The regional markets that also marked an increase in popularity in 2020 included: Western Poland, where 265,000 sq m was leased (compared to 40,000 sq m in 2019), Bydgoszcz/Toruń (139,000 sq m compared to 55,000 sq m) and Kraków (150,000 sq m compared to 77,000 sq m),” says Maciej Chmielewski, senior partner, director of the Industrial and Logistics Agency at Colliers. 

SECTORS

In 2020, the most activity was recorded by companies from the 3PL sector (ca. 28%), followed by the Retail sector (17%) and E-commerce (12%). According to the available detail, 3PL and Retail have quite similar shares when compared to 2019 and E-commerce is up by 200% YoY on gross activity. Through the pandemic we have recorded more demand for short-term leases to cope with additional demand however, typical lease lengths across the region range between 3 and 5 years for logistics and over 5 years for production.

RENTS

Rents have remained largely stable across the region, with some markets recording increases in the most sought-after locations. Prime headline rents across the region range from as low as EUR 2.9 per sq m / month in Poland and above €5.0 per sq m / month in Bulgaria. The level of achievable rent also depends on who the tenant is and under what terms are agreed in the lease. Construction costs also play their role as they have been on the rise over the past few years.

YIELDS

For prime industrial & logistics yields, we have recorded a stable trend in some markets, again partly due to lack of evidence, while others have recorded compression. Further inward movement can be expected, particular as the product type is highly sought after and the bulk of product remains firmly in the hands of long-term holders.

2021 will see the closure of a few additional portfolio transactions, so we may well get to see more industrial & logistics yields push past prime shopping centre yields. When benchmarked against other investment vehicles, such as 10-year Euro bonds and Eurozone long term interest rates, CEE real estate still maintains a significant spread and a compelling investment case.

“Industrial and logistics real estate, which breaks the valuation and new lease records, will become the workhorse of the investment market this year. Any logistics assets with sensible location will be sold”, summarizes Piotr Mirowski, senior partner, head of Investment Services at Colliers.


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Piotr Mirowski

Senior Partner | Head of Investment Services

Warsaw

Piotr Mirowski joined Colliers International in 2006 as an analyst in the CEE Investment Services Department and is currently responsible for operations and management of the team in Poland. His previous professional experience includes Deloitte’s Audit Department. In 2014, Piotr became a partner in the firm.

Piotr’s scope of responsibilities includes structuring and execution of property sale processes, commercial due diligence, financial modeling, commercial negotiation of sale and purchase contracts and transaction coordination in order to ensure that milestones are met successfully and on time.

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Maciej Chmielewski

Senior Partner | Director

Warsaw

Maciej Chmielewski joined Colliers International in September 2003. Since 2007 he has held the position of the Partner and the Director of Industrial and Logistics Agency.
 
Maciej advised in choosing the optimal location and negotiations of lease conditions for more than 1.000 000 square meters of warehouse and production space. He was involved in many projects and cooperated with representative clients such as Danone, Michelin, Unilever, Firestone, Kofola, Johnson Controls, Mauser, Newell Rubbermaid, Pregis and Sonoco.

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