According to Colliers, the total transaction volume of commercial real estate in the Baltics during the first six months of 2021 reached approximately 672 million euros, an increase of 42% compared to the corresponding period of 2020. Colliers foresees transaction volume in 2021 exceeding the EUR 1.0 billion level achieved in 2018-2020.
Total investment volume in 2021 will heavily depend on the number of large lot size deals. Expected closing of two-three large-scale deals will make a notable contribution to the year’s sales volumes. Besides, the investment activity will continue to be affected by the economic and epidemiological situation.
Following the overall trend in Europe, investors are expected to continue the hunt for industrial assets in all three Baltic States due to favourable market fundamentals. During the first half of this year, 5 out of 10 major transactions took place in the industrial sector. Market players have also paid considerable attention to the previously neglected segment of residential rental homes. The share of local and Baltic investors is expected to increase throughout the year, and the availability of capital will persuade investors to look for new opportunities.
According to an investor survey conducted in June, the mood of Baltic investors is to buy rather than sell assets. This mood will continue to affect supply and thus yields.
Angela Kolesnikova, Colliers partner, Head of Investments: “At the moment, we clearly see that the volume of investments was mainly ensured by the activity of Baltic investors, however, this does not mean that the composition of investors in general has changed structurally. We are see that the effect of travel restrictions brings benefits to the investors with local teams. The interest of international investors is still here and, given the right conditions, it will start to realize in transactions. In terms of profitability, we see the largest price increase in the industrial segment and, to a lesser extent, in offices - those where the quality of buildings and tenants meets current investors’ desire to invest in stable cash flow facilities. In the retail segment, supermarkets with a strong anchor tenant (such as a grocery store) are in demand, while other types of assets are currently considered risky. Unless the supply of quality assets in the market increases significantly, yields will continue to decline in the second half of the year.”
80% of respondents emphasized that the availability of commercial property is currently the biggest challenge, while tenants’ solvency is less worrying compared to 2020. Most of respondents plan to buy new assets next year, though they think that the offer of suitable investment opportunities may be limited. 60% of respondents indicated their willingness to invest in all three Baltic countries, while 20% are considering investing beyond the region.
The Baltic States, as a higher-yield market with good quality products, continue to attract new global capital. However, the limited availability of suitable supply also remains an issue.