Colliers has recently launched the annual commercial real estate overview that covers trends and forecasts for 2023 as well as the latest statistics and insights for past year in the Baltic region.
Despite the war outbreak in Ukraine in February 2022 and number of investment projects put on hold due to macroeconomic changes and overall uncertainty that followed, the total volume of commercial real estate investments in the Baltics still reached EUR 1.27 billion mark in 2022, exceeding EUR 1 billion for the fifth year since 2018. Even though, not as impressive as EUR 2 billion volume in 2021, 2022 volumes remained in line with pre-war predictions due to stronger 2nd half of the year performance.
The investment market recorded several large and medium-size single and portfolio deals: the retail segment continued to be investors’ top choice, attracting 37% of total volume in 2022, followed by the office (25%) and industrial sectors (22%). Attention to such emerging asset classes as the residential rental segment and senior housing continued to gain momentum.
Although Baltic investors continued to dominate the market, 2022 saw increased activity from Nordic capital, which was responsible for over one-fourth of acquisitions, while foreign capital in total stood at just under 42% of invested volume in the Baltic States, after 36% in 2020 and only 23% in 2021.
Angela Kolesnikova, Head of Investment department at Colliers Baltics comments: “Due to severe lack of supply, prime yields remained unchanged in 2022, despite growing pressure related to skyrocketing debt and property costs. However, as suggested by the investor mood and transactional evidence across Europe, there is undeniably a strong upward pressure on yields, which if not recognised by the sellers, can suppress the overall investment activity going forward.”
“Almost 400 transactions in total - the same amount as a year ago - were closed in the Baltics throughout 2022 with an average transaction size across the market amounting to EUR 3.2 million (compared with EUR 4.9 million in 2021). Top10 deals amounted to 32% of total pan-Baltic investment volume in 2022, while volume of deals above EUR 20 million was only half of what we saw in 2021”, continues A. Kolesnikova
As previously expected, emerging asset classes, like the rental residential segment and senior housing, continue to attract investor interest, although activity remains limited due to low availability of professional rental properties.
Following the pandemic restrictions during 2020-2021, inflation, declining purchasing power and rising energy costs are the new key concerns for retail tenants. As expected, 2022 was a slow year in terms of new professional retail object development, except new grocery stores and several shopping centers, which started and/or continued partial redevelopment / refurbishment. In 2022, discount retailers remained the most notable demand generators in the segment.
Although high uncertainty among tenants and developers initiated temporary delays in development and leasing processes, the industrial segment remained active throughout the year. Buoyant demand and low availability of new speculative industrial projects led to unprecedently low vacancy levels in all three Baltic States.
More info:
Anastasija Ruža
Colliers Baltics - Marketing & PR department
anastasija.ruza@colliers.com
+371 29262468
