Skip to main content Skip to footer

Tokyo office market Q2 2022 review and outlook

Download Report
Office Report Tokyo Q3 2021 1536 1040

Silence before the storm? Vacancies and rent are flat ahead of new supply wave


On August 3, Colliers Japan released "Tokyo Office Market Q2 2022 review and outlook". This report is based on Colliers Japan's analysis of the rental office market and future outlook for Grade A office buildings*1 in the five main wards of Tokyo (Chiyoda, Chuo-ku, Minato-ku, Shinjuku-ku, and Shibuya-ku) based on data collected independently by Colliers Japan.

 

In Q2 2022, vacancy rates in Tokyo’s central five wards remain flat. Demand is recovering, but not strongly enough to reverse the vacancy trend, and we expect demand to remain weaker than pre-2019 levels due to workplace downsizing trends.

We recommend landlords and building owners keep an eye on the intensifying leasing activities in new developments and be flexible on lease conditions. Whereas rents are flattening, effective rents may have continued to fall due to increased rent-free periods.

For tenants, we expect a widening variety of high-grade office options to arise from intensifying leasing activities in office developments close to completion and the likely vacancies in existing offices. Higher grade offices will allow modern office strategies that fit with new workplace trends, providing an advantage amid the fierce competition for talent.

 

Grade A supply in central Tokyo arise late 2022 and later
2022 new Grade A supply is scheduled to come online in late 2022. Several large-scale redevelopment completions are scheduled in 2023, which we forecast to be as large as 2020’s new supply, which had the highest new supply in the past five years. We expect Grade A office net absorption to recover in the long term, however, we expect future demand to balance at a weaker level compared to 2019 due to the overall trend of occupiers downsizing their office space.

Vacancy plateauing while rent declines slow
Office demand is on a recovery path, but it is not strong enough to start pushing vacancy downward. The vacancy rate is likely to start rising again in 2023, due to the increased supply. Rents are expected to be flat or remain in a gradual downtrend, but on an effective rent basis, rents may continue to fall due to increasing rent-free periods.

Vacancy trends vary by submarket, but rental declines are slowing across the board
The overall rise in vacancy rates has slowed and levelled off, but some markets have started to rise again. Rents have ceased to fall, but there are still cases of significant rent discounts in some properties with large vacancies.

 

*1  The Grade A office buildings surveyed were selected on our own criteria from office buildings for lease with a typical floor plate of approximately 300 tsubo or more.

 


Office Report Tokyo Q3 2021 1024 972

Tokyo office market Q2 2022 review and outlook

Download Report
Related Experts

Kohei Kawai

Director & Head

Research

Tokyo

As Director and Head of Research, Kohei is responsible for leading the research team in Japan with his strong capabilities in the field while moving into a more client-focused role, working closely with our existing client base and internal stakeholders across multiple functions. Reporting into the Managing Director in Japan, Kohei is leading and growing the local research capability with clear and ambitious targets for our clients, producing strategic, rigorous and actionable research that integrates our services across the region.
With 17 years of experience in the real estate industry, Kohei was responsible for analysing real estate market data for internal and external dissemination at XYMAX Real Estate Institute. His rigorous, strategic analysis contributed to developing business strategy plans and making management decisions, leading a team to produce data analyses for various businesses in the commercial real estate sector. 
 

View expert