Time to Look Beyond the Downturn
The outbreak of COVID-19 will sharply lower 2020 GDP growth in China and Hong Kong SAR, and adversely affect the rest of Asia, but less so Australia. The Asian retail sector has been notably hard hit. We assume the outbreak peaks in H1, though the spread of the virus beyond Asia raises the possibility of longer-term disruption. Investment property sales may weaken across Asia in H1, although a recent big investment in Shanghai shows some key real estate players are already looking beyond the likely downturn.