Despite the sharp drop-off in new private home sales in December against November, the number of units sold last month – 602 (excluding Exec Condos) - was actually quite encouraging considering the absence of any new project launches and the year-end festive period where market activities tend to slow substantially. In fact, it was the highest sales done in the month of December since 1,410 units were sold in December 2012. 

Developers’ sales last month fell by 49.9% from November to 602 (excl. ECs), but were up by 39.7% against the 431 units transacted in December 2017. After accounting for units that were returned in the quarter, we estimated the total new home sales for the full 2018 to come in at 8,706 units, down by 17.6% from the 10,566 units in 2017 – broadly in line with Colliers’ forecast. Including ECs, developers sold a total of 605 new units in December.

Home buyers continued to pick up units from projects that were launched in November – notably Parc Esta and Whistler Grand – as well as those from earlier launches. The top-selling private residential projects in December were: Parc Esta which sold 160 units at a median price of SGD1,687 psf; Whistler Grand which moved 128 units at a median price of SGD1,327 psf; Riverfront Residences where 47 units were transacted at a median price of SGD1,313 psf; and Park Colonial which sold 43 units at a median price of SGD1,729 psf.


Project Name

Street Name

Property Type

Locality

Units Sold in the Month

Median Price ($psf) in the Month

% sold to date of total

Parc Esta

Sims Avenue

Non-Landed

RCR

160

             1,687

28%

Whistler Grand

West Coast Vale

Non-Landed

OCR

128

             1,327

32%

Riverfront Residences

Hougang Avenue 7

Non-Landed

OCR

47

             1,313

57%

Park Colonial

Woodleigh Lane

Non-Landed

RCR

43

             1,729

70%

Stirling Residences

Stirling Road

Non-Landed

RCR

34

             1,745

40%

The Tapestry

Tampines Street 86

Non-Landed

OCR

31

             1,410

65%

Affinity At Serangoon

Serangoon North Avenue 1

Non-Landed

OCR

21

             1,503

29%

Belgravia Green

Belgravia Drive

Strata-Landed

OCR

18

                862

41%

Parc Botannia

Fernvale Street

Non-Landed

OCR

18

             1,338

64%

Kent Ridge Hill Residences

South Buona Vista Road

Non-Landed

RCR

8

             1,708

24%

Source: Colliers International Singapore Research


Projects that have continued to sell well seemed to have found the right pricing formula in the post-cooling measures regime. These projects - Riverfront Residences, Park Colonial, Stirling Residences and The Tapestry - are now seeing total sell-through at 40-65%, while holding prices relatively steady at SGD1,313 – 1,745 psf.  


Outlook
Looking ahead, we expect sales to be supply-led again as the pace and number of new launches continue to dictate takeup rate. In 2019, we estimate that 55-60 projects that make up over 17,000 units could be launched. However, some of these may spill over to 2020 depending on market conditions. 

Fourth Avenue Residences, Fyve Derbyshire and RV Altitude have started previews in early January and would be launched in the next few weeks. 
New home sales are likely to remain fairly subdued in January due to the limited number of launches and the Chinese New Year festivities in February. 

Other potential projects that could be put on the market in Q1 2019 include: Treasure@Tampines, former Normanton Park and former Amber Park. 

In the near-term, we believe demand side factors such as household income growth, job security, household formations should continue to support the private residential market.   

For 2019, we forecast that developers could potentially sell 9,500-10,000 new homes given the steady pipeline of upcoming projects.