Highest November sales since 2013
Developers’ sales rebounded in November – more than doubling October’s new home sales - on healthy demand for several new launches. The seven new projects that were launched – 3 Cuscaden, Arena Residences, Belgravia Green, Kent Ridge Hill Residences, The Woodleigh Residences, Parc Esta, and Whistler Grand – accounted for 830 units or 69% of the new private home sales last month.

Seven new launches in November 2018

Project Name

Locality

Total Number of Units in Project

Units Launched in the Month

Units Sold in the Month

Median Price ($psf) in the Month

Units sold as % of launched

3 Cuscaden

CCR

96

96

23

          3,555

24%

Arena Residences

RCR

98

70

54

          1,813

77%

Belgravia Green

OCR

81

49

31

              860

63%

Kent Ridge Hill Residences

RCR

548

250

126

          1,715

50%

Parc Esta

RCR

1399

450

348

          1,699

77%

The Woodleigh Residences

RCR

667

50

29

          2,002

58%

Whistler Grand

OCR

716

300

219

          1,352

73%

Source: Colliers International Singapore Research, URA


The 1,198 new units (excl. Executive Condos) sold in November was up by 146% from the 487 units (excl. ECs) transacted in October. It was also 52% higher than the 788 units shifted in November 2017. Interestingly, this was the highest sales booked for the month of November in five years, since 1,271 units (excl. ECs) was sold in November 2013. 

We think the sales performance in November continued to reflect an underlying genuine demand for astutely-priced and conveniently-located projects. The takeup for the new launches will also help to shore up developers’ confidence in the residential sector in Singapore, following the more muted market sentiment after new cooling measures were implemented in July 2018.

The top sellers – all new launches - in November were: Parc Esta which sold 348 units at a median price of SGD1,699 psf; Whistler Grand which sold 219 units at a median price of SGD1,352 psf; and Kent Ridge Hill Residences which sold 126 units at a median price of SGD1,715 psf. In particular, Parc Esta sold well as it has attractive locational attributes – next to MRT station, in a city fringe location, and is one stop away from the Paya Lebar Quarter mixed-development, coupled with attractive pricing – its median price of SGD1,699 psf compared favorably to Park Place Residences’ SGD2,000 psf achieved for its second phase launch in April 2018. In addition, these projects featured efficiently-sized units – the average unit size sold at the top three sellers in November ranged from 666 to 800 sq ft, reflecting the sweet spot affordability range of SGD1 million to 1.2 million.    

On the other spectrum, 3 Cuscaden did very well, registering 23 units sold at a median price of SGD3,555 psf, with an average unit price quantum of SGD2.5 million. This should bode well for prime launches that are lining up next year. 

Apart from the new launches, some projects which were previously put on the market also raked in decent sales during the month, including Park Colonial which moved 52 units at a median price of SGD1,739 psf, Riverfront Residences which sold 51 units at a median price of SGD1,324 psf, and Stirling Residences which shifted 43 units at a median price of SGD1,723 psf.

Median prices are little changed from their launches in July 2018. Their developers appear to have found equilibrium pricing points for these projects and are comfortable at moving 30-50 units per month. This rate should bring them to 100% sell-through within the five-year time frame comfortably. 

Top 10 best-selling projects in November 2018

Project Name

Street Name

Property Type

Locality

Units Sold in the Month

Median Price ($psf) in the Month

% sold to date of total

Parc Esta

Sims Avenue

Non-Landed

RCR

348

             1,699

25%

Whistler Grand

West Coast Vale

Non-Landed

OCR

219

             1,352

31%

Kent Ridge Hill Residences

South Buona Vista Road

Non-Landed

RCR

126

             1,715

23%

Arena Residences

Guillemard Crescent

Non-Landed

RCR

54

             1,813

55%

Park Colonial

Woodleigh Lane

Non-Landed

RCR

52

             1,739

69%

Riverfront Residences

Hougang Avenue 7

Non-Landed

OCR

51

             1,324

55%

Stirling Residences

Stirling Road

Non-Landed

RCR

43

             1,723

38%

Belgravia Green

Belgravia Drive

Strata-Landed

OCR

31

                860

38%

The Tapestry

Tampines Street 86

Non-Landed

OCR

31

             1,376

64%

Affinity At Serangoon

Serangoon North Avenue 1

Non-Landed

OCR

30

             1,490

28%

Source: Colliers International Singapore Research, URA


ECs
Sales of ECs – a hybrid of public and private housing – dipped substantially in November on dwindling supply of such units on the market. Just four new EC units were sold last month, down from 23 ECs transacted in October. The four transactions comprised three units at Rivercove Residences sold at a median price of SGD990 psf and a unit at Treasure Crest sold at a median price of SGD1,100 psf. As the EC inventory runs down, we expect prices in this segment of the housing market to remain firm.

Outlook
November’s robust sales took new home sales for the first 11 months of 2018 to 8,644 units (excl. ECs), down 15.7% YOY - on track to meet our full-year forecast of 9,000 units (excl. ECs). That said, we would expect sales to moderate in December which typically sees slower market activity due to the year-end festive period and the school holidays. 

For 2019, we estimate that developers could potentially sell 9,500-10,000 new homes amid the ample pipeline of new projects that could be launched for sale. This is an 11% increase from our 2018’s forecasted numbers as we take into account a potentially larger and varied launch pipeline and gradual market acceptance of the new measures in 2019. Projects jetting off the launch pad in Q1 2019 could include: Mayfair Modern, Fourth Avenue Residences, Petit Jervois, MeyerHouse, Florence Residences and Treasure at Tampines.