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UK Real Estate Investment Forecasts Q3 2022

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We have entered a transition phase where the strong inward yield movements we have seen across most sectors over the past 18 months have come to an end.


Investor caution appears to be an inevitable consequence of high inflation, rising interest rates and wider concerns about the growth trajectories of the global economy.

Although all property yields will end 2022 at roughly the same level as they ended 2021, this is a consequence of strong compression during H1 followed by outward shifts in H2.

Highlights in our Q3 report include:

  • We downgraded our 2022 total returns forecast from 12.0% to 5.9%

  • All property rental growth to slow from 3.8% in 2022 to 2.9% in 2023

  • Property yield/gilt spread to settle at around 300 bps

  • We expect all property yields to shift out by 26 bps in H2

  • Retail warehouses will be the best performing asset type in 2022

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UK Real Estate Investment Forecasts Q3 2022

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Related Experts

Oliver Kolodseike

Director of Economics and Research

Research and Forecasting

London - West End

Oliver is Head of Economic Research and leads the quarterly UK forecasting process including the publication of Colliers' Real Estate Investment Forecasts (REIF) report. He also  authors the monthly Property Snapshot and, quarterly Scotland Snapshot. Prior to joining Colliers, he worked for the Centre for Economics and Business Research and IHS Markit. Oliver holds a BA in Economics from  Georg-August University Göttingen (Germany) and an MSc in Economics from Exeter University.

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John Knowles

Head of National Capital Markets

National Capital Markets

London - West End

A highly qualified real estate professional, John has extensive knowledge of direct and indirect real estate and finance projects in Europe and Asia.

Prior to joining Colliers, John was MD Corporate Finance at DTZ and Head of Capital Markets at LSH. He has worked extensively in distressed debt and NPL situations and has concluded transactions in the last 12 months for Cerberus, Starwood and LBG.

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