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Real Estate Investment Forecasts Q3 2019

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Investment forcast Q32019

The UK economy will most likely avoid a technical recession this year, contrary to some other European countries, as household spending is holding up relatively well thanks to a healthy labour market. However, the commercial property market has had a subdued year so far, with investment volumes standing at £28bn in the first eight months of 2019, down by almost a third from the same period in 2018.

Our forecasts suggest that returns will turn negative this year for the first time since 2008 as rental performance and pricing concerns in the retail sector are driving increases in yields. All property returns are predicted to fall by 2.6% this year, with some retail segments projected to experience double-digit declines. However, we expect the market to bottom out this year and over the five-year horizon until 2023, we predict all-property annual average returns of


real estate investment forecast Q3 2019

Real Estate Investment Forecasts Q3 2019

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Related Experts

Walter Boettcher

Head of Research and Economics

Research and Forecasting

London - West End

I am the the Chief Economist at global property advisors Colliers International based in London.  I am a research economist identifying timely research topics and directing research and forecasting outputs.

I have over 20 years UK and European property industry experience and extensive expertise across a wide range of property sectors and related industries.

I participate regularly in industry panel discussions, but am focused more on direct client engagement with institutions, property companies, banks, and private investors. A regular media commentator, I have a wide range of national and broadcast experience.

I joined Colliers International in August 2007 after several years at a private property company where he was responsible for managing a mixed portfolio of London residential, retail and office assets.

Previously, I worked in a few London property advisory firms, a geodemographic company as well as a few youthful sojourns in the US offshore oil industry, local government and entertainment business.

I am an economics graduate of the University of Texas at Austin and received his PhD from the Faculty of Science at University College London.  I am a member of Lambda Alpha International and the Society of Property Researchers.

Perhaps best known for my alternative take on property economics and investment, I am a keen proponent of UK regional development and infrastructure investment.

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Michael Kershaw


National Capital Markets

London - West End

Michael is a Senior Director in the National Capital Markets team.  Michael joined Colliers International in mid-2010.


Michael has worked as an investment specialist for over 15 years.  Throughout that time Michael has focussed on Industrial, Office and Mixed Portfolio Investment work UK wide.  Michael is also experienced in undertaking Sale & Leaseback transactions on behalf of Corporate Clients. 


Based in Colliers Central London office Michael works closely with investment, agency and professional colleagues in both London and the Colliers International regional offices throughout the UK. 


Michael’s major investment clients include UK and International Institutions, Property Companies and High Net Worth individuals including Legal & General, Aberdeen Standard, Clipstone Land, Ascendas Singbridge, Gazeley, Peel Logistics, The Cording Group, Gramercy, The Milton Group and Colliers Capital amongst others. 

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Russell Francis


Valuation and Advisory Services

London - West End

Russell is a Chartered Surveyor responsible for running the Valuation and Advisory Services Department comprising over 50 surveyors and support staff engaged in the valuation of commercial and residential properties throughout the United Kingdom, Europe, Asia and the USA.   


Russell started his career with Edward Erdman & Co in 1978 where he initially specialised in rent reviews and lease renewals on shopping centres, together with other related professional matters.  In 1988 he became a Director within the Valuation Department of Colliers Erdman Lewis with specific responsibility for valuing investment properties and shopping centres.  In 1995, he became Head of Valuation within Colliers Erdman Lewis.  In 2009 he joined the Colliers International Global Valuation and Advisory Services Group, representing the UK and EMEA region. 

Russell often acts as an Expert Witness and recently represented Blackstone with regard to the claim for damages following the destruction of a 450,000 sq ft distribution depot by the Buncefield oil terminal explosion.

At the end of 2019 Russell stepped down as Head of the Valuation Team to become a Consultant focusing on Expert Witness work,special projects and specific client contacts.

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Nigel Holroyd

Head of Colliers Global Investors UK

Colliers Global Investors

London - West End

Nigel is head of Colliers Global Investors UK with responsibility for total assets under management in excess of £900m and for new business development.

He has over 30 years' experience in the UK commercial property market, and he acts as Fund Manager to S.I. Pension Trustees Ltd and Leicestershire County Council Pension Fund. Nigel's role includes the formulation of investment strategies, implementation of purchases and sales, client liaison, overseeing performance analysis, valuations and asset management. Both funds have out performed their respective benchmarks over the long term.

Nigel holds an Honours Degree in Urban Estates Surveying, is a member of the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors, is a member of the Investment Property Forum and is an approved person with the Financial Conduct Authority.

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