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Real Estate Investment Forecasts Q2 2020

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The impact of COVID-19 on economic and commercial property activity is clearly visible in the data, with GDP dropping by 20% in April and CRE investment activity failing to break through the £1bn mark in both April and May. This does not come as a surprise, given how most parts of the economy were shut for months.

Notwithstanding a second wave in new infections and a resulting re-introduction of stricter lockdown measures as currently experienced in Melbourne, the trough is now behind us and latest figures suggest that momentum is building. “Soft” economic indicators point to a pick-up in activity and commercial property investment volumes are on the up again, with deals worth up to £2.5bn in the making.

Nonetheless, annual all-property returns will fall by 7.1% this year as rental performance and pricing concerns across most asset classes are driving increases in yields. The retail and leisure segments of the market will fare particularly poorly. However, we expect the external shock of the pandemic to be relatively short-lived and the commercial property market to bounce back next year.


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Real Estate Investment Forecasts Q2 2020

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Walter Boettcher

Head of Research and Economics

Research and Forecasting

London - West End

I am the the Chief Economist at global property advisors Colliers International based in London.  I am a research economist identifying timely research topics and directing research and forecasting outputs.

I have over 20 years UK and European property industry experience and extensive expertise across a wide range of property sectors and related industries.

I participate regularly in industry panel discussions, but am focused more on direct client engagement with institutions, property companies, banks, and private investors. A regular media commentator, I have a wide range of national and broadcast experience.

I joined Colliers International in August 2007 after several years at a private property company where he was responsible for managing a mixed portfolio of London residential, retail and office assets.

Previously, I worked in a few London property advisory firms, a geodemographic company as well as a few youthful sojourns in the US offshore oil industry, local government and entertainment business.

I am an economics graduate of the University of Texas at Austin and received his PhD from the Faculty of Science at University College London.  I am a member of Lambda Alpha International and the Society of Property Researchers.

Perhaps best known for my alternative take on property economics and investment, I am a keen proponent of UK regional development and infrastructure investment.

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Oliver Kolodseike

Director of Economics and Research

Research and Forecasting

London - West End

Oliver is Head of Economic Research and leads the quarterly UK forecasting process including the publication of Colliers' Real Estate Investment Forecasts (REIF) report. He also  authors the monthly Property Snapshot and, quarterly Scotland Snapshot. Prior to joining Colliers, he worked for the Centre for Economics and Business Research and IHS Markit. Oliver holds a BA in Economics from  Georg-August University Göttingen (Germany) and an MSc in Economics from Exeter University.

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