Recession may have arrived, but monthly measures show a recovery is already under way. While the trajectory might be positive, worries remain that winding down the furlough scheme in October will increase unemployment, thereby jeopardising the strength of the recovery. Much will depend on monetary and fiscal policies in the Autumn. A return to pre-pandemic levels of GDP is not expected until the end of 2021. The fortunes of UK commercial property and investor sentiment will depend on the pace of recovery of income streams. So far, financial markets remain generally stable suggesting that property investment dynamics are also relatively stable. Real bonds rates are still negative, sterling still offers a discount to cross border investors and UK prime yields are competitive. Let’s hope when we are all back in September that activity accelerates and the sector as a whole can regain its posture.
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