After tracking sterling for the last couple of months, we have concluded that some line has been drawn under sterling’s downside. Potentially, a powerful message for UK real estate. An acrimonious ‘no deal’ EU exit has been dismissed, hence the worst scenario is leaving the EU with a deal, which looks to be priced into sterling already. The alternatives are either a softer Brexit or no exit at all, both of which have sterling upsides.
Now purists might argue that, despite an agreed deal, that subsequent EU trade negotiations could fail, resulting in a future ‘Hard Brexit’. Our crass reply? In the spirit of our Prime Minister - quid sit futurum cras, fuge quaerere (avoid asking what the future will bring).
At a pragmatic level, we would suggest that once the spirit of a future trade relationship is agreed, reality will be hard to resist. We hope...
