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Global investor confidence rising as Britain leaves the EU

31 01 20 brexit

Our chief economist and EMEA Head of Research comments on the market on the day the UK leaves the EU.


Dr Walter Boettcher, Colliers International’s chief economist, said: “Discussions and instructions in the commercial real estate market suggests that the stability of a UK government with a strong mandate may have been enough to inspire renewed investor confidence. Over the last six weeks, a global appetite for UK commercial real estate is apparent from investors across Asia, including Japan, and North America, but also from German investors.

“Some UK economic survey indicators also suggest a strengthening of business sentiment which may explain the Bank of England’s decision to leave the base rate unchanged. The economic outlook remains uncertain, with opinions varying widely.  Clearly, though, the onus is now on Government policy to stoke the economy, should it be required. 

The Prime Minister continues to make positive noises about infrastructure investment and regional economic rebalancing, all good news for commercial real estate, but we await the March budget announcement to see if these result in concrete foundations.

“Of course, Brexit still needs to be negotiated, hence its risk is not completely dispelled. However for the moment, commercial real estate investors seem content to begin positioning themselves for what looks, so far, like a potentially very interesting and active year.”



Damian Harrington
, Head of EMEA Research at Colliers International, added: “Despite the challenges facing Europe in the past few years, the real estate market has maintained a healthy position from both an occupational and capital markets perspective. 

In 2019 office take-up across Europe, for example, was very much in-line with 2018 levels, and occupier conditions are still heavily weighted towards landlords. So despite slowing employment growth, a mixed macro outlook and a rather turgid beginning to the year, provisional European transaction volumes came in very close to their 2018 levels of €308 billion – only two per cent down. Capital values – at least outside of retail – continued to grow which has helped maintain the volume momentum. And all this, despite a 30 per cent drop-off in activity in the UK. 

“This year a pick-up in activity into Britain is expected as it is arguably the most mis-priced market in Europe, if not globally, from a yield perspective. Further across the region, we can expect more retail assets coming to the market, helping to make up for the dearth of new commercial real estate available or changing hands. We are also likely to see investors incorporate more operational real estate into their portfolios and make niche plays by sector, in order to drive returns and mitigate their risk. 

“Ultimately, despite today being the day Britain officially leaves the European Union, it should be a good investment year for the continent, including some rebalancing of capital distribution back to the UK.”  

 

 


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Walter Boettcher

Head of Research and Economics

Research and Forecasting

London - West End

I am the the Chief Economist at global property advisors Colliers International based in London.  I am a research economist identifying timely research topics and directing research and forecasting outputs.

I have over 20 years UK and European property industry experience and extensive expertise across a wide range of property sectors and related industries.

I participate regularly in industry panel discussions, but am focused more on direct client engagement with institutions, property companies, banks, and private investors. A regular media commentator, I have a wide range of national and broadcast experience.

I joined Colliers International in August 2007 after several years at a private property company where he was responsible for managing a mixed portfolio of London residential, retail and office assets.

Previously, I worked in a few London property advisory firms, a geodemographic company as well as a few youthful sojourns in the US offshore oil industry, local government and entertainment business.

I am an economics graduate of the University of Texas at Austin and received his PhD from the Faculty of Science at University College London.  I am a member of Lambda Alpha International and the Society of Property Researchers.

Perhaps best known for my alternative take on property economics and investment, I am a keen proponent of UK regional development and infrastructure investment.

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Damian Harrington

Head of Research

Research

London - West End

I currently have a joint role as a Director Colliers, as both Head of EMEA Research, and Head of Global Capital Markets Research.  I am also part of  our EMEA Location Strategy team.

I have worked within the real estate profession  for over 20 years, living and working from various locations across EMEA including London, Dubai, Prague, Helsinki and Amsterdam. My work and student experiences expanded my horizon to include India and the US. 

I use my experience and analytical skills to take a forward looking view of market opportunities & challenges impacting the industry on behalf of internal and external clients.  During my career I have written research /generated analysis of markets across all asset class types - from residential to offices, retail to logistics and hotels to niche sectors such as life sciences, air cargo and data centres.   I have analysed a variety of subjects and subject matter relevanmt to our industry, examining the impact on real estate such as the changing nature of global capital and the impact on global capital flows, the impact of e-commerce and near/off-shoring on global industrial and logistics markets and the changing nature of the energy and hydrocarbon industry. In addition to developing a view of markets at a very high-level,  I have conducted multiple studies examing the  micro-meso location factors critical in supporting the creation of planning policy at city/regional level, and in supporting investment and occupier decisions on key projects across EMEA, in addition to providing a strategic overview of multiple- markets and locations  as part of the decision making process. 

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Kim Inam

PR Manager

Marketing & Communications

London - West End

I'm a communications professional who has previously worked as a journalist for eight years covering a broad range of topics including politics, crime, health and housing in north London. In recent years I have worked in corporate communications for local authorities across London  and joined Colliers in October 2019, initially providing maternity leave cover.

I provide strategic public relations advice to various business lines within the UK organisation to secure recognition for their work in the property press as well as key target media, and work with our experts to produce thought leadership pieces which are of interest to our clients and colleagues within the commercial real estate sector. In addition, alongside colleagues in the PR and wider communications team, I provide media and social media training for our in-house experts to prepare them for media opportunities and raise their personal brand within the sector.

As well as supporting various teams within the UK business, I also I curate and edit regular content for the Colliers.com blog, which drives credible business leads to our experts.

 

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