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Food, beverage and leisure sectors showing bounce back in latest ONS figures

120820Foodbeverageandleisuresectorsshowingbounceback

Following the Office for National Statistics’ announcement this morning that the UK’s economy has contracted for the second quarter in a row, putting the country into an official recession, experts from global real estate advisory firm, Colliers International, have shared their views. 


Today’s ONS figures pointed to a 20 per cent decline in GDP over the last quarter. Overall the UK’s economy is now 17 per cent smaller than it was in February. However the figures showed a record month-on-month performance for the accommodation and food services sector in June 2020. 

Between March and April 2020, the sector declined by more than 90 per cent, however in June the sector bounced back with 68 per cent growth, potentially indicating the start of an early recovery. 

Oliver Kolodseike, UK deputy chief economist at Colliers International, said: “It was no surprise that the figures announced today showed a second quarter of decline placing us in a recession. We know that the UK economy is dependent on the services sector which all but came to a halt when the COVID-19 lockdown was introduced in March. However, there is some positivity in the latest data as monthly growth figures showed an 8.6 per cent increase in GDP in June, making it the strongest month on record. Notwithstanding a second wave of infections, hopefully we are past the worst of this crisis.

“It is also positive that the food and accommodation sector saw such a record level of growth, although naturally it was starting from a low base. However, this provides some optimism for the sector and the overall economy for this current quarter.” 

James Shorthouse, Head of Alternative Markets, which includes the pub, restaurant and leisure industries, also shared his response. He added: “Leisure and hospitality businesses were among the markets which suffered the hardest because of the lockdown. Growth has been slow but steady following the staged reopening of businesses in June and July.

“The summer holidays, the current trend for staycations and this month’s ‘Eat Out to Help Out’ scheme is really assisting in bringing activity back to the market. It has been reported that more than 10 million meals have already been claimed which is great for businesses who have faced a bleak few months. 

“However, this is a short-term sticking plaster and it remains to be seen whether this upward trend will continue beyond this scheme’s end. It doesn’t help that the Government is threatening to close down the sector again to enable schools to remain open in September, and the end of the furlough scheme is looming over the sector as well in October. It looks like 2020 will continue to be a very challenging year for large parts of the hospitality and leisure sector.”


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James Shorthouse

Head of Alternative Markets

Licensed and Leisure

London - West End

James is one of the UK's leading advisers in Pub, Bar, Restaurant and Leisure sectors. He has worked in the sector for over 30 years, a period during which the sector has undergone enormous changes in its operational, ownership and regulatory structures.

Acting on behalf of major operators, investors and banks on portfolios and high value single assets, James' operator clients include Greene King, Ei group, Casual Dining Group, and Novus. On the investor side, for many years he advised Nomura and Terra Firma, worked closely with Cerberus on all of its leisure sector investments and has recently advised Patron Capital, Stellex and NewRiver.

Within Colliers International, James heads up the UK Licensed & Leisure team and also runs the businesses Alternative Markets Division which encompasses Hotels, Automotive, Healthcare, and other specialist Leisure teams.

Throughout his career James has advised major UK and International lenders, both on new lending and on developing and executing exit strategies for distressed lending positions. His team have worked with a number of F&B operators to rationalise their portfolios and have advised landlords on how to preserve value and retain tenants in difficult times.

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Oliver Kolodseike

Director of Economics and Research

Research and Forecasting

London - West End

Oliver is Head of Economic Research and leads the quarterly UK forecasting process including the publication of Colliers' Real Estate Investment Forecasts (REIF) report. He also  authors the monthly Property Snapshot and, quarterly Scotland Snapshot. Prior to joining Colliers, he worked for the Centre for Economics and Business Research and IHS Markit. Oliver holds a BA in Economics from  Georg-August University Göttingen (Germany) and an MSc in Economics from Exeter University.

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Kim Inam

PR Manager

Marketing & Communications

London - West End

I'm a communications professional who has previously worked as a journalist for eight years covering a broad range of topics including politics, crime, health and housing in north London. In recent years I have worked in corporate communications for local authorities across London  and joined Colliers in October 2019, initially providing maternity leave cover.

I provide strategic public relations advice to various business lines within the UK organisation to secure recognition for their work in the property press as well as key target media, and work with our experts to produce thought leadership pieces which are of interest to our clients and colleagues within the commercial real estate sector. In addition, alongside colleagues in the PR and wider communications team, I provide media and social media training for our in-house experts to prepare them for media opportunities and raise their personal brand within the sector.

As well as supporting various teams within the UK business, I also I curate and edit regular content for the Colliers.com blog, which drives credible business leads to our experts.

 

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