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      Market Overview Research

      • Property Snapshot | December 2018
      • Property Snapshot | November 2018
      • Property Snapshot | October 2018
      • Property Snapshot | September 2018

      View more research

      An Economic Briefing with Anatole Kaletsky

      An Island of Stability in a World of Chaos - or - An Island of Chaos in the World of Stability? - This was the key message arising from Anatole’s characteristically carefully chosen words to a packed house of clients at the Dorchester Hotel.

      View the entire presentation as well as comments from Walter Boettcher , Richard Divall and Simon Tuddenham  below.  




      The global economy is improving and increasingly stable with the US leading. The prospects for Europe have improved vastly due to the ECB’s QE policies. The UK has performed very well, but is overly dependent on importing international capital.  Anatole’s fear is that international perceptions of a business unfriendly or generally unstable government will encourage foreign investors to look elsewhere.
       
      A Labour-led government is possible because the success of Tory economic management has been undermined by stagnating living standards the result of rapid population growth (immigration) which has caused GDP per capita to remain low.  Living standards are improving only slowly.
       
      Nevertheless, in the event of a Labour-led government, it is unlikely to last more than a year, as its policies will lead to financial instability— the value of sterling will fall and the  foreign investment that supports the UK economy will dry up. A Tory-led government could also prove short-lived, due to its pursuit of an EU referendum. 
       
      Greece has diverted much attention away from Britain’s issues and Anatole fears that resolving the Greek crisis, which is imminent, will mean that foreign investors will turn their attention the Britain.  They might not like what they see.  Anatole was not predicting a disaster, but that the environment for international capital inflows will likely be less supportive. Although UK GDP growth is likely to slow a little in in 2015, the retention of low interest rates will aid relatively strong performance through 2016.

      Research Contact

      • Mark Charlton
        Mark Charlton

        Head of Research and Forecasting

        Direct: +44 20 7487 1720

        Mobile: +44 7740 639 894

        Mark.Charlton@colliers.com


      • Walter Boettcher
        Walter Boettcher

        Director of Research and Forecasting

        Direct: +44 20 7344 6581

        Mobile: +447824691586

        Walter.Boettcher@colliers.com


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