Colliers International UK Market Overview Research

Keep up to date with the latest real estate research with Colliers International UK's property market reports.

• Property Snapshot, May 2012 (PDF 296KB)
  UK GDP fell marginally in Q1 12, by 0.2% q/q, although the weighted average of purchasing manager indices in Q1 12 was 54.5 consistent with economic expansion; retail sales volume rose 0.8% q/q; and unemployment improved slightly, falling from 8.4% to 8.3%.
• Property Snapshot, April 2012 (PDF 346KB)
  The UK Budget was neutral, although it is seen as pro-growth and has support from capital markets. Eurozone worries have eased on the back of the ECB’s injection of €1 trillion into the European banking system; many problems remain though.
• Property Snapshot, March 2012 (PDF 118KB)
  The components of GDP growth for Q4 11 show that business investment is the principal constraint on recovery. Capital formation and inventory growth fell by 2.8% and 0.8% q/q respectively, offsetting positive contributions from export and household spending at 2.3% and 0.5% q/q. Moderating inflation expectations may be supporting household spending.
• Property Snapshot, February 2012 (PDF 413KB)
  The first estimate of Q4 11 GDP growth showed a 0.2% q/q decline. Nevertheless, expectations of recession in 2012 have moderated with PMI data suggesting growth in Q1 12. Services led the trend, increasing from 54.0 in December to 56.0 in January.
• Specialist Property Snapshot, February 2012 (PDF 309KB)
  The second estimate of Q4 11 GDP remains at -0.2% q/q. PMI indicators improved in December and January, suggesting that some momentum is building. Infl ation is falling rapidly and should begin to improve sentiment, but employment prospects remain a worry.
• A Briefing with Anatole Kaletsky - What really matters in 2012? (VIDEO)
  Tuesday 7 February saw Anatole Kaletsky deliver an engaging presentation on the future direction of the property market. Anatole Kaletsky’s overall view was rather more optimistic than most in the audience anticipated. The strength in emerging markets, a recovering US economy and the fact that the European issues are already discounted, provided a positive platform.
• Property Snapshot, January 2012 (PDF 394KB)
  Expectations of a UK recession in 2012 have moderated with a British Chamber of Commerce survey suggesting that a recession is not a foregone conclusion. Further improvement in service sector PMIs from 52.1 in November to 54.0 in December suggests that Q4 11 GDP will not show an economic contraction.
• Exclusive video: Colliers International’s house view of 2011, and outlook for 2012
  At the conclusion of what has been another challenging year for the UK property industry, Colliers International’s Research & Forecasting team reviews the current state of the market with contributions from a number of in-house sector experts.
• Property Snapshot, December 2011 (PDF 176KB)
  UK recession is likely, although a deep recession is not, unless eurozone instability creates a new international financial crisis. Coordinated interventions by central banks improved eurozone liquidity; bond yields fell and equities rallied, but the threat of a collective eurozone downgrade and the downgrading of French banks by S&P has introduced new instability. The market response to new eurozone agreements is not yet clear.
• Property Snapshot, November 2011 (PDF 360KB)
  Preliminary GDP growth for Q3 11 surprised to the upside at 0.5% q/q, although it looks increasingly likely that this will be revised down. Growth was attributed to service and financial service sector expansion, but the latest PMI indices suggest a weaker profile going forward. Services PMI fell from 52.9 in September to 51.3 in October.
• Specialist Property Snapshot, November 2011 (PDF 359KB)
  Real household disposable income for Q2 increased 1.2% q/q, but is still down 1.2% on Q2 10. Deterioration in the eurozone economy (the UK’s largest export market) has amplified the uncertainty with respect to UK economic performance and employment expectations.
• Property Snapshot, October 2011 (PDF 176KB)
  Q2 11 GDP was revised down to 0.1% q/q showing that the recession was deeper than originally thought. Real GDP is still 4.5% down on its pre-recession peak. The latest purchasing manager indices suggest that the Q3 11 GDP growth figure will struggle to remain positive at 0.1% q/q.
• Property Snapshot, September 2011 (PDF 181KB)
  The Q2 11 GDP was confirmed at 0.2% q/q ,with weakness attributed to temporary factors. The likelihood of a strong Q3 11 bounce back as temporary factors ‘unwind’ is diminishing as PMI indicators show a weakening profile in August.
• Property Snapshot, August 2011 (PDF 183KB)
  The Q2 11 GDP figure struck a fine balance: sufficient strength to suggest stability and allow reaffirmation of government commitment to fiscal cutbacks, but weak enough to indicate little likelihood of a base rate hike this year.
• Property Snapshot, July 2011 (PDF 169KB)
  Market sentiment is weak, the inflation outlook is benign and base rates are not expected to rise until mid-2012. CPI and RPI in April were stable at 4.5% and 5.2% respectively. Ten year gilt yields ended June at 3.42%, but are forecast to fall below 3%.
• Has there been an improvement in lending to real estate?, June 2011 (VIDEO)
  Colliers International Director, Walter Boettcher, comments on the latest from the UK and property markets.
• Property Snapshot, June 2011 (PDF 156KB)
  GDP growth (second estimate) for Q1 11 was unrevised at 0.5% q/q. The GDP expenditure components showed substantial contractions in household spending (-0.6% q/q) and capital investment (-0.4% q/q.) Government spending increased by 1% q/q, accounting for almost half of the positive growth.
• Specialist Property Snapshot, May 2011 (PDF 192KB)
  In real terms, disposable income fell on an annual basis for the first time in 30 years. The annual household savings ratio also remains in line with the late 1990s as households exercise the discretion in discretionary spending.
• Walter Boettcher comments on the UK economy and property markets, May 2011 (VIDEO)
  An April write-off? Not likely! In-house economist Walter Boettcher, comments on the latest from the UK economy and property markets.
• Property Snapshot, May 2011 (PDF 614KB)
  The first estimate of GDP growth for Q1 11 (0.5% q/q) fell somewhat short of market expectations and has contributed to a general market reassessment of the downside risks to the UK economy.
• Property Snapshot, April 2011 (PDF 698KB)
  Despite relatively strong PMI figures in March, consistent with real GDP growth in Q1 2011, attention has been focused more on the significant erosion of household resources.
• Property Snapshot, March 2011 (PDF 356KB)
  GDP growth components for Q4 10 show that the economy was reliant on government spending, which grew by 0.7% q/q. Household expenditure fell by 0.1% and investment contracted by 2.5%.
• Property Snapshot, February 2011 (PDF 490KB)
  The surprise 0.5% contraction of GDP in Q4 10 is looking anomalous rather than like the start of a double dip recession. Purchasing manager survey data shows a January service sector recovery, up from 49.7 to 54.5.
• Property Snapshot, January 2011 (PDF 623KB)
  The UK Government expressed impatience with persistent above target inflation, describing it as a 'threat to Britain.' November CPI rose to 3.2%, more than twice the Bank of England's early 2010 forecast of 1.5%; RPI was up to 4.7%.
• Property Snapshot, December 2010 (PDF 1.51MB)
  GDP quarterly growth in Q3 10 proved to be broad-based with all main expenditure components positive for the first time since Q3 05. The Office of Budget Responsibility upgraded its 2010 forecast to 1.8% with medium term reductions.
• Property Snapshot, November 2010 (PDF 154KB)
  Service sector data suggested weaker growth, but result appears to be broad based with construction sector continuing to contribute substantially. Components of growth due out in late November.
• Specialist Property Snapshot, November 2010 (PDF 184KB)
  Discretionary spending remains strong as the household savings ratio falls from 7.7% in Q2 09 to 3.2% in Q2 10. Eurostat consumer confidence rose slightly in October, although other survey results are mixed; consumers remain very value conscious.
• Property Snapshot, October 2010 (PDF 116KB)
  The BoE Credit Conditions survey though shows limited expectations of increased investment demand in Q4 2010.
• Property Snapshot, September 2010 (PDF 186KB)
  The quarterly GDP components report shows negative capital formation and flat net export growth suggesting that economic rebalancing is not yet on track.
• Property Snapshot, August 2010 (PDF 186KB)
  The European bank stress tests were criticised for failing to account for sovereign default exposures and ill-defined tier-one assets.
• Specialist Property Snapshot, July 2010 (PDF 186KB)
  Households continue to exercise the ‘discretion’ in discretionary spending as the savings ratio remains well above levels seen before the downturn.
• Property Snapshot, July 2010 (PDF 184KB)
  The emergency Budget has eased uncertainty about government resolve to address the deficit. Concerns remain though over the macroeconomic impact of the proposed fiscal tightening.
• Property Snapshot, June 2010 (PDF 190KB)
  The hung parliament did not result in a collapse in international investor confidence in the UK. In contrast, the eurozone crisis resulted in 'safe haven' investment flows into the UK.
• Property Snapshot, May 2010 (PDF 225KB)
  Capital markets seem content to 'wait and see' with respect to the new government. The focus is less on who will be in power and more on clear policy.
• Property Snapshot, April 2010 (PDF 221KB)
  Financial sector continues to restrain economic recovery. The election and policy uncertainty is impeding business and investment decision making.
• Property Snapshot, March 2010 (PDF 226KB)
  Q4 09 GDP growth was revised up to 0.3% q/q with services and industrial output up by 0.5% and 0.4% respectively. The overall rate of recovery is stymied though by continued financial sector weakness.
• Property Snapshot, February 2010 (PDF 222KB)
  Spare capacity in the economy may be overstated. Off market deals being reported in the absence of marketed stock. Manufacturing PMI confidence is the highest since 1994. Leasing shows profound disconnect between London and regions.
• Property Snapshot, January 2010 (PDF 219KB)
  Deflation risks may be retreating; little sign that the mini gold rush for prime investments is abating; Christmas trading results better than expected; Logistic and industrial demand still limited to rationalisation and opportunistic upgrading.
• Property Snapshot, December 2009 (PDF 230KB)
  Benign monetary environment is set to continue. Investors may have paused to reflect on Dubai World's announcements. Value retailers remain acquisitive; midmarketers, opportunistic. Industrial leasing demand likely to reach 80m sq ft in 2009 (a fall of 35% on 2008).
• Property Snapshot, November 2009 (PDF 220KB)
  Money markets suggest rate rise as early as May 2010. Net real estate lending figures fell again in Q3 09 by £1.7bn. Retail leasing market still riddled with puzzling array of incentive packages. Housebuilders are showing renewed interest in development sites.
• Property Snapshot, October 2009 (PDF 142KB)
  Most indicators continue to improve, although 'sustainability of the recovery' is the key phrase as numerous uncertainties remain, as much for the general economy, as for the property market in particular.
• Property Snapshot, September 2009 (PDF 213KB)
  Confidence indicators improved significantly in August. Increasingly there is a disparity between prime and secondary. Retail trade and consumer confidence indicators continue to improve. The residential auction frenzy has subsided for the moment.
• Property Snapshot, August 2009 (PDF 174KB)
  Banks continue to reduce loan exposures, especially to real estate. Retail trade and consumer confidence indicators continue to improve. House price growth for 2009 may finish the year in positive territory.
• Property Snapshot, July 2009 (PDF 219KB)
  Service sector confidence still negative, but continues to improve. Finance conditions showing few signs of improvement. Net effective retail rents have fallen by 12.2% since June 2008. The BoE survey shows improved mortgage availability in Q3 09.
• Property Snapshot, June 2009 (PDF 176KB)
  Lack of product is replacing lack of finance as the main impediment to increased market transactions. Buyers outnumber sellers by a wide margin, especially for properties with long leases and secure income. The institutions are back in the market with several purchases across the sectors.
• Property Snapshot, May 2009 (PDF 301KB)
  GDP contracted by 1.9% over Q1 09. The result was weaker than expected and has undermined confidence in the assumptions underlying the government's budget. Latest forecasts suggest GDP growth in 2009 of near -4%.
• Property Snapshot, April 2009 (PDF 223KB)
  Economic sentiment drifted somewhat lower in March, although consumer confidence improved. Investment transactions and lending still very limited.
• Property Snapshot, March 2009 (PDF 383KB)
  General sentiment weakened further in February; meanwhile government policies seem more aggressive, at least in tone. The few positive trends in the property markets are not yet decisive, but we will monitor carefully over the next month.
• Anatole Kaletsky economic briefing, February 2009 (PDF 203KB)
  Colliers International held its annual economics and forecasting briefing on 24 February 2009 with a seminar from renowned economist and journalist, Anatole Kaletsky. Here is a summary of his presentation.
• Property Snapshot, February 2009 (PDF 275KB)
  Sentiment continues to deteriorate. Claimant count highest since January 2000 but still well below early 1990s. Redemptions may be playing a greater role in sales.
• Property Snapshot, January 2009 (PDF 254KB)
  Economic sentiment curve flat in December, but remains very negative. BoE Credit Conditions Survey indicates a further reduction in lending to commercial real estate sector.
• Ireland Property Snapshot, Q3 2008 (PDF 1,364KB)
  After a fall of 1.5% y/y in Q1 08, Irish GDP fell by an additional 0.8% in Q2 08 putting the Irish economy officially in recession, explained by decreases in consumer spending, capital investment and contraction in the construction industry.
• Property Snapshot, December 2008 (PDF 78KB)
  Economic confidence continues to deteriorate. Inter-bank lending market returning to pre-Lehman levels.
• Bristol Market Overview, Autumn 2008 (PDF 1,044KB)
  Bristol is developing the creative people and networks critical to economically successful city-regions.
• Property Snapshot, November 2008 (PDF 245KB)
  Services surveys suggest Q4 GDP will contract by at least as much as in Q3. Banks are asking investors not to draw down on agreed facilities. Year-end valuations expected to see large shift towards actual market pricing.
• Property Snapshot, October 2008 (PDF 248KB)
  Sentiment indictors suggest that the UK economy is contracting. Bank lending to commercial property has come to a virtual halt. Retail administrations are becoming a feature of the market, both in-town and out-of-town.
• Property Snapshot, September 2008 (PDF 244KB)
  Q2 GDP growth revised to 0.0%. Growing likelihood of recession over end 2008 and early 2009.
• Property Snapshot, August 2008 (PDF 246KB)
  Q2 GDP growth fell to 0.2%. Service sectors remain expansionary; industrial sectors contracting. Anxiety among retailers is increasing significantly.
• Manchester Market Overview, Summer 2008 (PDF 1,018KB)
  The improving office and retail offer in Manchester ensures it remains a leading city in which to do business.
• Property Snapshot, July 2008 (PDF 225KB)
  Business confidence at lowest level since UK's withdrawal from the ERM. Pricing mismatch between vendors and purchasers remains.
• Property Snapshot, June 2008 (PDF 230KB)
  Monthly update on the UK economy and property markets.
• Property Snapshot, May 2008 (PDF 226KB)
  Monthly update on the UK economy and property markets.
• Property Snapshot, April 2008 (PDF 227KB)
  Monthly update on the UK economy and property markets.
• Property Snapshot, March 2008 (PDF 317KB)
  Monthly update on the UK economy and property markets.
• Southbank Market Report, June 2007 (PDF 702KB)
  The central London market is quietly booming and the Southbank is at the heart of this.
• Leeds Market Overview, Spring 2007 (PDF 1,643KB)
  Leeds is now ranked among the top 30 cities in Europe and £3.2bn has been invested there in commercial property development over the past 10 years.