Compiled by
John Stater, research director for Colliers International – Las Vegas, the report cites recent job growth in the retail sector and rising taxable sales figures as positive indicators for the retail market. Southern Nevada’s retail vacancy rate fell to 10.3 percent in the third quarter, representing a year-over-year decline of 1.3 percentage points.
“Southern Nevada’s retail market continued to surprise and delight, turning in a stronger third quarter than second quarter and showing signs of embarking on a course of sustained recovery,” Stater said. “Given the recent gains in both retail employment and taxable sales, one has to think that the recovery being experienced in Southern Nevada’s retail market is real and that it might be gaining steam.”
Despite bright spots in retail and other areas of the local commercial real estate market, experts from Colliers International anticipate a slow fourth quarter as lingering economic uncertainty and other factors continue to stifle growth.
“Too many entrepreneurs and investors are playing the waiting game, plagued by concerns about global recession and by the uncertainty of the upcoming presidential contest,” Stater said.
While expectations are low for the remainder of 2012, Southern Nevada’s hotel industry appears poised to continue its path toward recovery, posting improved occupancy and room rates during the third quarter. Visitor volume in Clark County is also on the rise, totaling more than 23.3 million through the first seven months of 2012, an increase of approximately 127,000 visitors in comparison to last year’s figures.
Sales activity involving hotels remained weak in the third quarter, but recent gains in the hospitality sector have created a renewed sense of optimism within the industry.
“Hospitality owners in Las Vegas are in a much stronger financial position now than in the dark days of the recession and are finding less reason to sell,” Stater said. “In total, we remain bullish on Southern Nevada’s hospitality sector in 2013 and 2014 and believe it will continue to grow, even if only slowly.”
Other key findings of the report, broken down by market segment, include:
Industrial
Industrial vacancy now stands at 15.1 percent. This is the same as one quarter ago and 0.3 points higher than one year ago.
The industrial average asking rent now stands at $0.48 per square foot on a triple-net basis. This is a $0.01 decrease from one quarter ago and a $0.04 decrease from one year ago.
Industrial net absorption was 57,969 square feet this quarter. This is a 108,299-squarefoot increase from one quarter ago and a 170,430-square-foot decrease from one year ago.
There were zero square feet of industrial completions this quarter. This is as it was one quarter ago and a 75,000-square-foot decrease from one year ago.
Despite a very rough quarter for warehouse and distribution space, Southern Nevada’s industrial market posted positive net absorption this quarter and saw an end to rising vacancy.
Forward supply of industrial space in the valley increased again this quarter to 728,320 square feet, from 509,320 square feet last quarter. Aside from one speculative project that has been wrestling with ownership and financing problems, all of this space is in the form of build-to-suits for companies that range from the world’s most advanced data center/collocation service provider to freight companies and food companies.
After two quarters of negative net absorption, Southern Nevada’s industrial market posted almost 58,000 square feet of positive net absorption in the third quarter. This is still exceptionally weak, but is, at least, fairly broad-based.
Much of the activity in the market is clearly lateral. Tenants are looking for less space, better-located space or cheaper space (or perhaps some combination of the three).
Part of the problem in Southern Nevada appears to be a mismatch between the space that is currently available on the market and the requirements of potential tenants.
“After a very productive 2011 and a very disappointing start to 2012, Southern Nevada’s industrial market appears to be settling in for a long, slow slog,” Stater said.
Office
Office vacancy now stands at 23.5 percent. This is a 0.2-point decrease from one quarter ago and a 0.2-point decrease from one year ago.
The office average asking rent now stands at $1.90 per square foot on a full-service-gross basis. This is the same as one quarter ago and a $0.08 decrease from one year ago.
Office net absorption was 99,681 square feet this quarter. This is an 88,621-square-foot decrease from one quarter ago and a 383,285-square-foot decrease from one year ago.
There were 67,692 square feet of office space completed this quarter. This is a 63,192-square-foot increase from one quarter ago and a 244,752-square-foot decrease from one year ago.
The amount of office space under construction has not rebounded to the levels seen during the boom, of course, but it has grown over the past few quarters. The office pipeline currently includes 866,000 square feet of product, a surprising amount of it in the form of speculative projects.
The trajectory of office vacancy suggests a market that is bouncing along the bottom. A lack of office job growth is probably to blame for the market’s inability to gain any real traction and begin a sustained recovery.
As overall demand for office space has remained consistent, the difference is now in the number of units that are being vacated quarter after quarter. Retention of tenants remains the key for landlords.
If regional and national companies again take notice of Southern Nevada, both for its once-again growing population and once-again competitive rental rates and housing costs, the office recovery may quicken its pace.
“Southern Nevada’s office market is, by most indications, bouncing along the bottom. Office employment is still down, and will have to improve before the market begins to recover in earnest,” Stater said. “Net absorption will continue to bounce around a bit, and while several projects are now under construction or in the planning stages, and should positively impact net absorption for the next 12 months, there is no indication that this trend will not be short lived. In essence, the office market is in neutral.”
Retail
Retail vacancy now stands at 10.3 percent. This is a 0.8-point decrease from one quarter ago and a 1.3 point decrease from one year ago.
The retail average asking rent now stands at $1.37 per square foot on a triple-net basis. This is a $0.03 decrease from one quarter ago and a $0.04 decrease from one year ago.
Retail net absorption was 345,831 square feet this quarter. This is a 194,580-square-foot increase from one quarter ago and a 309,096-square-foot increase from one year ago.
There were no retail completions this quarter. This is as it was one quarter ago and one year ago.
Retail employment in the Las Vegas Metropolitain Statistical Area increased between July 2011 and July 2012, from 93,700 retail employees to 95,200 retail employees.
Clark County’s taxable sales have averaged $2.6 million per month so far in 2012. This is $0.2 million higher than the same period in 2011, and also higher than in 2010.
Sales activity of retail space continued to be weak when compared to 2011, with 1,069,000 square feet of retail space changing hands so far in 2012. This is roughly half the amount of space that sold in 2011, though it is considerably more than was sold in 2008, 2009 and 2010.
Distressed sales accounted for 10 percent of single-tenant owner/user sales, 32 percent of single-tenant investment sales and 59 percent of shopping center sales so far in 2012.
While shop-space has a higher vacancy rate than big-box, the big-box stores hold about 24 percent of all the vacant retail space in Southern Nevada’s anchored centers.
Hotel
Hotel occupancy in Clark County has averaged 89 percent in 2012, a 2.1-point increase over 2011, and a 5.5-point increase over 2010; a strong sign that Southern Nevada’s tourism industry has largely recovered from the depths of the Great Recession.
Clark County’s ADR (average daily rate) has averaged $108.22 in 2012, a 3 percent increase over 2011, when ADR averaged at $104.97, and a 12.3 percent increase over 2010, when ADR averaged just $94.94.
Clark County visitor volume has totaled 23,368,724 visitors through the first seven months of 2012, approximately 127,000 more visitors than arrived in the first seven months of 2011.
RevPAR (revenue per available room) is up by 3 percent in 2012 over 2011, and up 15.7 percent compared to 2010.
Between July 2011 and July 2012, the leisure and hospitality sector added 7,300 jobs; slower year-over-year growth than in January 2012, but still indicative of a growing industry.
Year-to-date in 2012, sales volume has been quite weak, with only 2,807 units selling at approximately $44,000 per unit, for a total sales volume of $122MM.
Most sales have been in full-service properties without casinos on the Strip and fullservice properties with casinos off the Strip.
Medical Office
Medical office vacancy now stands at 20.9 percent. This is a 1.4-point decrease from one quarter ago and a 0.5-point increase from one year ago.
The office average asking rent now stands at $2.18 per square foot on a full-service-gross basis. This is a $0.08 decrease from one quarter ago and a $0.15 decrease from one year ago.
Medical office net absorption was 69,085 square feet this quarter. This is a 129,157-square-foot increase from one quarter ago and a 40,714-square-foot increase from one year ago.
There were no new medical office completions this quarter. This is even with one quarter ago and one year ago.
On a quarter-by-quarter basis, the health care sector had been adding jobs, slowly but steadily, from the third quarter of 2009 to the second quarter of 2011. Starting in the third quarter of 2011, this trend reversed itself for three quarters, with Southern Nevada losing 2,300 jobs. Over the past two quarters, job growth has renewed, and Southern Nevada now has 19,600 health care workers.
Strong employment growth over the past two quarters suggests that demand for medical office could be stronger in early 2013.
The recovery of the medical office market in Southern Nevada is pushing against two main headwinds: downsizing by medical practitioners – either due to greater efficiencies gained from electronic health records or the trend of single practitioners joining groups to find better compensation – and competition from non-medical office product.
These headwinds should conspire to keep demand for medical office space depressed over the next few months, and thus keep the market in neutral.
“Taken in the context of the last eight quarters, this quarter’s performance seems to be more ‘bouncing along the bottom’ than the beginning of a sustained recovery,” Stater said. “Asking rates should continue to decline, on the whole, as medical landlords work to lure what activity exists in the market into their centers.”
Multifamily
According to statistics provided by REIS, multifamily vacancy in Southern Nevada decreased in the second quarter of 2012, the most recent quarter of available data, continuing a nine-quarter trend of declining vacancy.
Over the past 40 years, through good times and bad, Southern Nevada experienced continual year-after-year increases in population – until the Great Recession of 2007, that is. Population growth has now been stagnant in Southern Nevada for the past five years and still has not hit the peak achieved in 2007.
Rapid population growth was responsible for the wondrous increase in construction and financial activities jobs in Southern Nevada, among other things, and lack of population growth is hampering the region’s recovery.
Recent driver’s license counts from the Nevada Department of Transportation suggest that population is once again growing in Southern Nevada, feeding the hope that recovery will quicken in 2013 and beyond.
Multifamily sales dropped off in the third quarter of 2012, with 1,482 units selling at an average price per unit of $56,440.
“Southern Nevada’s multifamily sector is continuing to display a path of steady recovery as new construction has increased to try to keep up with current demand for Class A apartments,” Stater said.
“Investors are cautious of late, ignoring proforma numbers in favor of actual numbers. In addition, the investment picture in Southern Nevada is taking on an international character, with more Canadian and Chinese investors turning their attention to our little corner of the globe,” Stater said.
About Colliers International
Colliers International is the third-largest commercial real estate services company in the world, with over 12,300 professionals operating out of more than 520 offices in 62 countries. A subsidiary of FirstService Corporation (NASDAQ: FSRV; TSX: FSV and FSV.PR.U), it focuses on accelerating success for its clients by seamlessly providing a full range of services to real estate users, owners and investors worldwide, including global corporate solutions, brokerage, property and asset management, hotel investment sales and consulting, valuation, consulting and appraisal services, mortgage banking and research. Commercial Property Executive and Multi-Housing News magazines ranked Colliers International the top U.S. real estate company. The latest annual survey by the Lipsey Company ranked Colliers International as the second-most recognized commercial real estate firm in the world.
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