Pricing for core assets (particularly in the office and logistics asset classes) continues to be primarily driven by the residual lease term. However, we note that the liquidity for core+ and value-add properties is now also growing. Prime office yields for Warsaw are in the range of 6.00% for CBD Core and 7.50% – 7.75% for Warsaw Mokotów, whilst initial yields in major regional cities (Wrocław and Kraków) have fallen below 7.00%.

Retail yields range from ca. 5.50% for Warsaw and major regional cities for modern, 3rd generation, dominant, trophy-type assets, up to ca. 8.00% - 8.50% for shopping centers in smaller secondary cities.

Prime logistics yields have now decreased below 7.00% for core assets. We note that the benchmark pricing remains to be driven by the lease length. Assets with a shorter residual lease term have become increasingly liquid, amid the record year in terms of investment volume in 2014, however still trade at a discount, albeit smaller.

Volumes

The market recorded in excess of 20 institutional investment transactions in the first half of this year. Overall volume of single-asset transactions was lower than in the corresponding period of 2014. However, that is due to the limited availability of large-ticket properties for sale.

The office sector dominated in the overall transaction volume at 49%, predominantly due to the scale of the sales of Green Horizon (ca. EUR 65 million), Enterprise Park (EUR 65 million) and Europlex (EUR 65 million). Retail and logistics sectors accounted for 32% and 19% of the market respectively.

Deals specifics and stories

Most notable transactions included the sales of: the CA Immo Portfolio by CA Immobilien Anlagen to TPG/P3, Sarni Stok by CBRE Global Investors to Union Investment,  Green Horizon by Skanska to Griffin Real Estate and Enterprise Park by Avestus Real Estate to Tristan Capital Partners.

New market entrants in the commercial real estate sectors such as Lonestar and Rockastle completed their acquisitions of the Aviva Portfolio & Europlex and Solaris, respectively. The market also recorded a major corporate deal as Griffin Real Estate/Oaktree and PIMCO acquired a stake in Echo Investment S.A., one of the most renowned developers in Poland.

Forecast

“2015 investment volume is expected to approach 2014 figures as there is more than EUR 1.5 billion in transactions in due diligence and pre-closing and others are in the negotiation phase,” said Piotr Mirowski, Partner and Director of Investment Services in Poland at Colliers International.

“Poland remains one of the most coveted investment destinations in the CEE region. Diversity of capital deployed in the country continues to increase, which results in growing competition for prime product, improved liquidity and upward pressure on pricing,” added Piotr Mirowski.