Summary of the last year and prognosis for 2013 according to Colliers International:

GENERAL OVERVIEW

  • The year 2012 was a good period for the Polish industrial market. Throughout the year over 430,000 m2 of modern warehouse space was delivered to the market, which represented almost 10% growth in comparison to 2011. The largest amount of new projects was delivered in Wrocław. Currently the total supply of warehouse space in Poland amounts to more than 7.27 million m2.
  • In terms of transaction volume, 2012 turned out to be similar to 2011. Demand throughout the year was fairly steady. During the four quarters almost 1.7 million m2 of warehouse space was leased, the majority of which was located in Warsaw and Central Poland. The most popular among the signed lease agreements were new deals, which constituted 56% of tenants’ activity.
  • In comparison to Q4 2011 the vacancy rate in Poland dropped from 11.4% at the end of 2011 to 9.2% at the end of December 2012. A decrease in available space was observed in most markets.
  • Over the year, rents remained relatively stable. Upward trend was observed only in the regions where the vacancy rate was low.

SUPPLY

  • Warsaw – at the end of 2012 the supply of modern warehouse space in three Warsaw zones amounted to 2.59 million m2. There is currently approximately 43,000 m2 of warehouse space under construction, most of which is located in Warsaw zone II.
  • Central Poland – at the end of 2012 total resources of warehouse space in Central Poland increased to over 1 million m2. During the whole year about 50,000 m2 were delivered to the market.
  • Poznań – in terms of supply, 2012 did not bring any significant changes in the Poznań warehouse market and at the end of the year, the total stock of modern warehouse space amounted to nearly 895,000 m2. Currently, almost 20,000 m2 are under construction.
  • Upper Silesia – right after Warsaw, it is the second largest warehouse market in Poland. The current supply is estimated at over 1.37 million m2. Throughout the year about 38,000 m2 were delivered to the market within 3 projects.
  • Kraków – in terms of existing supply, Kraków is still one of the smallest industrial markets in Poland. Total warehouse space amounts to slightly more than 136,000 m2.
  • Wrocław – the current supply of modern warehouse space amounts to over 717,000 m2. In 2012 almost 58,000 m2 were completed and in 2013 another 67,000 m2 of space is planned to be delivered to the market.
  • Gdańsk – at the end of Q4 2012 warehouse resources increased to 170,000 m2. Throughout the year the supply increased by almost 35,000 m2. There is currently 14,000 m2 of modern warehouse space under construction.
  • Toruń – in comparison to 2011 the total stock of warehouse space in Toruń did not change. At the end of 2012 there was almost 100,000 m2 of modern warehouse space located in the city.
  • Szczecin – in terms of existing modern warehouse space, Szczecin is the smallest industrial market in Poland. Its resources have remained unchanged for several years and amount to nearly 42,000 m2. Currently there is approximately 6,900 m2 under construction within the North-West Logistic Park.

DEMAND

  • Warsaw – in terms of transaction volume three Warsaw zones have dominated the market. During 2012 almost 570,000 m2 of space was leased, 38.5% of which was located in Warsaw zone II. Most of the lease agreements were signed in the fourth quarter of 2012. Among the agreements, new contracts dominated the market and constituted 57.5% of tenants’ activity.
  • Central Poland – leased space in 2012 reached the level of 290,000 m2, representing about 30% growth in comparison to the previous year. The majority of space was rented in the third quarter (almost 52% of the total transaction volume). Renegotiations dominated the market and constituted almost 69% of all signed deals.
  • Poznań – the year 2012 turned out to be another record in terms of leased warehouse space. The transaction volume reached the level of almost 175,000 m2. Renegotiations and new agreements dominated, which represented 63% and 33.7% respectively
  • Upper Silesia –space leased in 2012 reached the level of 250,000 m2, which represented a significant drop in comparison to the year 2011, when approximately 355,000 m2 of space was leased. Among the contracts, new agreements dominated and constituted more than 50% of all signed deals.
  • Kraków – in terms of transaction volume, the year 2012 was not very impressive. During the whole year almost 18,900 m2 of space was leased, which represents significant drop compared to the year 2011 with over 54,000 m2 of leased space.
  • Wrocław – the volume of transaction in comparison to 2011 remained at the similar level of more than 200,000 m2. Most contracts were signed in the first and third quarter of 2012. Nearly 63% of the contracts were new deals. 25% of transaction volume were BTS agreements.
  • Gdańsk – from year to year steady growth of interest in the region among tenants is observed. The transaction volume increased by 18% compared to 2011 and was close to 67,000 m2. New agreements continued to dominate and constituted almost 63% of total demand.
  • Toruń – it is the only region in Poland where, similarly to the situation in the previous year, no lease transactions of modern warehouse space were signed.
  • Szczecin – in 2012 there was nearly double increase of transaction volume reported, compared to 2011. There were 4 lease agreements signed for a total area of over 23,000 m2.

VACANCY

  • At the end of 2012 vacancy rate in Poland amounted to 9.2%, which represented 670,791 m2 of space and is a significant drop compared to 2011 (11.4%).
  • Warsaw – the vacancy rate in 2012 showed a decreasing tendency and stood at 11.7% at the end of the year, with 16% at the end of 2011.
  • Regional markets – in relation to the end of 2011, the vacancy rate declined in Wrocław, Upper Silesia, Gdańsk and in Szczecin (where the most significant drop from over 50% to nearly 20% was recorded). The lowest rate was recorded in Gdańsk, Poznań and Upper Silesia and the highest invariably in  Szczecin.

RENTAL RATES

  • Rental rates remained rather stable throughout the year, with a slight upward trend in the regions, where demand was the highest and vacancy rates were the lowest.

PROGNOSIS

  • It is estimated that new supply in 2013 will reach a slightly lower level than in 2012. At the end of 2012 approximately 250,000 m2 of modern warehouse space was under construction. It is worth mentioning that about 88% of space in active construction has already been leased. Therefore we can expect that the vacancy rate will be gradually reduced, which may cause slight increase of rents in selected markets
  • A further decrease in the vacancy rate is expected. However, the number of speculatively built projects will not increase.
  • The demand should remain relatively stable, both in Warsaw and in most regional markets. Although it does not exclude a small drop in the second half of the year.
  • 2013 will  still be dominated by BTS and pre-let agreements, the majority of which will be located in the west part of Poland, in the vicinity of highways.

 

We forecast that the coming year will not be worse than the previous one. We observe that Polish market is in the interest of the companies which are not active in our country yet. Colliers currently  advises on many transactions significant in terms of volume – these are single transactions of ca. 50,000-60,000 m2 located in different parts of Poland.” – comments Tomasz Kasperowicz, Partner at Colliers International, Industrial and Logistics Agency.

The biggest activity on the industrial market is expected in the agglomeration of Poznań, Wrocław and Śląsk.” – adds Tomasz Kasperowicz.

 

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