The forecast, which is the first of its kind for the industry in the region, provides 3 month rolling  and year-end hotel performance forecasts for key performance indicators including: hotel occupancy, Average Daily Rate (ADR) and Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR). Spanning 29 submarkets across the Middle East and North Africa, the forecast is compiled using actual operating data from a sample of 3, 4 and 5 star hotels and quality serviced apartments, in addition to historical data trends, rolling averages and anticipated events.

Commenting on the launch, Filippo Sona, Director, Head of Hotels at Colliers International said: “Investors and industry stakeholders are continually looking to understand the powerful factors shaping the MENA hospitality market. The forecast  will provide industry professionals with a basis for budgeting and pricing strategies as the sector undergoes significant development,  including the delivery of properties scheduled to come online in the mid to long-term. Colliers International has conducted valuations of 32-35,000 keys and asset management of 7800 keys in the region, this has provided us with a unique insight into what lies ahead for this dynamic sector.”

While the forecast for January highlights the reemergence of Egypt as a regional powerhouse in the hospitality sector, with an anticipated 35% and 97% growth in RevPAR in Cairo and Sharm Al Sheikh respectively, Fujairah and Sheikh Zayed Road, Dubai are the two submarkets that are anticipated to feel most pressure on RevPAR in the coming months. 

“Whereas growth in the top two markets of Sharm Al Sheikh and Cairo is driven by demand factors, the amount of supply scheduled to come online is the key factor shaping the outlook for Fujairah and Sheikh Zayed Road, Dubai,” concluded Sona.