Gustavo Castro, Head of Research at Colliers International, in Portugal, comments: “as we enter 2013, the general mood of investors is more risk-averse than it once was. A year ago, investors were more optimistic about the European economy and not so preoccupied with the American fiscal cliff; in Portugal, investors were expecting the much anticipated economic recovery in 2013. Yet, despite this mood swing, we believe that there is much to be positive about in the coming year. I have outlined five key predictions for 2013 below:
1. ICEE INDUSTRIES WILL DRIVE FIRST WORLD ECONOMIC GROWTH
Intellectual Capital, Energy and Education (ICEE) industries will drive economic growth in the developed world. Tech growth will continue to support FIRE (Finance, Insurance and Real Estate) demand in developed markets.
2. CHINA WILL SEE RISING DEMAND FOR WAREHOUSE DISTRIBUTION SPACE
Relatively little land in China has been designated for development into warehouse property. This constrained new supply, combined with several demand side factors, primarily a growth in China’s logistics market, will make Chinese warehouses a star performer in 2013.
3. EMEA PROPERTY TRANSACTIONS WILL GROW BY UP TO 10%
Although transactions will probably struggle in the beginning of the year, we do expect a recovery in the second half of 2013, probably induced by a modest economic recovery. In the end, we predict that the year will end with a transaction volume as much as 10% greater than in 2012.
4. EUROPEAN ELECTIONS WILL NOT THREATEN THE EUROZONE
While upcoming elections in Germany and Italy will prolong uncertainty and potentially create volatility in investment markets, they do not pose a true threat. Germany’s support of the eurozone will continue post-election. The risk that Italy’s April elections will fail to produce a government willing to continue on the reform path is also low.
5. U.S. HOUSING RECOVERY WILL SOLIDIFY
The U.S. single-family housing market is finally in recovery. The National Association of Home Builders/First American Improving Markets Index shows 201 housing markets now in recovery— a post-recession high. This trend will continue in 2013.
Check the report, here.