Mar 29, 2016

Background:

Shenzhen’s residential property market was volatile in 2015, with transaction volume surging by 65% YOY and the average sales price growing by nearly 40% from 2014. On 25 March, Shenzhen’s government announced a new round of policies aimed at curbing the excessive growth in property prices.

Figure 1 Shenzhen New Commodity Residential Market Transaction Volume and Growth Rate

Source: Research, Colliers International Shenzhen, 2016

New Home Purchase Restrictions:

The municipal government will increase residential land supply and build more government-funded houses in order to balance demand and supply. Moreover, the authorities will ban financial institutions such as Internet finance companies and micro-lending companies from providing loans for housing down payments.

In addition, the new policies will raise the minimum down payment for a segment of buyers from 30% to the new level of 40%. Non-local buyers will be required to show proof of payment for social insurance or individual income tax for three consecutive years in order to qualify for housing purchases, instead of the previous one year.

Figure 2 Changes to Down Payment Policy

Own A House in Shenzhen

Borrowed Mortgages in the Past 2 Years

Minimum Down Payment

No

No

30% (unchanged)

Yes

40% (Previous: 30%)

Yes

Yes, but have paid off

40% (Previous: 30%)

Source: Government agencies; Research, Colliers International Shenzhen, 2016

Figure 3 Changes to Minimum Payment Period for Taxation or Social Insurance

Purchaser

Before

After

Non-local Buyers

One year

Three consecutive years

Source: Government agencies; Research, Colliers International Shenzhen, 2016

Colliers’ view:

The new housing policies towards Shenzhen are intended to cool down speculation in the city’s housing market. In the short term, these tighter measures are expected to slow down the number of transactions in both the primary and secondary housing markets. This will have a concurrent effect on price growth.

The recent restrictions are intended to limit short-term speculation. In the medium to long term, the city’s residential property market is expected to return to stable growth in both transaction volume and prices, supported by the city’s demographic and economic fundamentals.

Disclaimer
Colliers International has made its best efforts to interpret the above new policy but accepts no liability for any error, omission, inaccuracy, misinterpretation or misunderstanding created by the above comments. If any discrepancies exit, the original Chinese version issued by the central government should prevail.

For further information, please contact:


Carlby Xie
MSc, MRICS
Director | Research
China
+86 21 6141 3688
Carlby.Xie@colliers.com


Eric Lam
Managing Director
South China
+86 20 3819 3888
+86 20 3819 3899
Eric.Lam@colliers.com


About Colliers International
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