Real Estate Research

Keep up to date with the latest real estate research and property market reports.

Market overview

• Property Snapshot, January 2012 (PDF 394KB)
  Expectations of a UK recession in 2012 have moderated with a British Chamber of Commerce survey suggesting that a recession is not a foregone conclusion. Further improvement in service sector PMIs from 52.1 in November to 54.0 in December suggests that Q4 11 GDP will not show an economic contraction.
• Exclusive video: Colliers International’s house view of 2011, and outlook for 2012
  At the conclusion of what has been another challenging year for the UK property industry, Colliers International’s Research & Forecasting team reviews the current state of the market with contributions from a number of in-house sector experts
• Property Snapshot, December 2011 (PDF176KB)
  UK recession is likely, although a deep recession is not, unless eurozone instability creates a new international financial crisis. Coordinated interventions by central banks improved eurozone liquidity; bond yields fell and equities rallied, but the threat of a collective eurozone downgrade and the downgrading of French banks by S&P has introduced new instability. The market response to new eurozone agreements is not yet clear.
• Property Snapshot, November 2011 (PDF360KB)
  Preliminary GDP growth for Q3 11 surprised to the upside at 0.5% q/q, although it looks increasingly likely that this will be revised down. Growth was attributed to service and financial service sector expansion, but the latest PMI indices suggest a weaker profile going forward. Services PMI fell from 52.9 in September to 51.3 in October.
• Specialist Property Snapshot, November 2011 (PDF359KB)
  Real household disposable income for Q2 increased 1.2% q/q, but is still down 1.2% on Q2 10. Deterioration in the eurozone economy (the UK’s largest export market) has amplified the uncertainty with respect to UK economic performance and employment expectations.
• Property Snapshot, October 2011 (PDF176KB)
  Q2 11 GDP was revised down to 0.1% q/q showing that the recession was deeper than originally thought. Real GDP is still 4.5% down on its pre-recession peak. The latest purchasing manager indices suggest that the Q3 11 GDP growth figure will struggle to remain positive at 0.1% q/q.
• Property Snapshot, September 2011 (PDF181KB)
  The Q2 11 GDP was confirmed at 0.2% q/q ,with weakness attributed to temporary factors. The likelihood of a strong Q3 11 bounce back as temporary factors ‘unwind’ is diminishing as PMI indicators show a weakening profile in August.
• Property Snapshot, August 2011 (PDF183KB)
  The Q2 11 GDP figure struck a fine balance: sufficient strength to suggest stability and allow reaffirmation of government commitment to fiscal cutbacks, but weak enough to indicate little likelihood of a base rate hike this year.
• Property Snapshot, July 2011 (PDF169KB)
  Market sentiment is weak, the inflation outlook is benign and base rates are not expected to rise until mid-2012. CPI and RPI in April were stable at 4.5% and 5.2% respectively. Ten year gilt yields ended June at 3.42%, but are forecast to fall below 3%.
• Has there been an improvement in lending to real estate?, June 2011 (VIDEO)
  Colliers International Director, Walter Boettcher, comments on the latest from the UK and property markets.

Offices

• Central London Offices, Q4 2011  (PDF 442KB)
  In spite of a fall in take-up, vacancy fell once again across all submarkets as a lack of new supply continued to underpin positive absorption. Total availability fell by 10% in Q4. Grade A vacancy now stands at 7.9%, down from 10% in 2009.
• West End Office Occupier Outlook, December 2011 (287KB)
  Overall, West End vacancy has remained unchanged over the past few months as transactional activity for built space has slowed. Major pre-lets to Camden Council and Debenhams have eaten into pipeline space whilst take-up of existing product fell by 30% in Q3 2011. Generation Investment Management has also taken 23,000 sq ft at AirW1.
• South East Offices Snapshot, November 2011 (290KB)
  Total M25 availability fell for the second successive quarter to stand at its lowest level for 12 months. Take-up surged in Q3 2011 rising by over 100% quarter on quarter. Q3 take-up totalled 1.2 million sq ft, which was the highest quarterly take-up since Q4 2010.
• Central London Offices, Q3 2011  (PDF 425KB)
  In the face of worsening economic conditions, Central London office availability remained flat in Q3 2011. This is the first time quarterly vacancy has not fallen since Q3 2009. The vacancy rate remains at 7.7%.
• Glasgow Net Stock Absorption, September 2011  (PDF 385KB)
  The Glasgow office market has experienced modest take-up during the fi rst half of 2011. Transaction levels for H1 2011 reached 153,669 sq ft which was 27% down on the previous six monthly total. Take-up in the City Core fell by 29% as major deals were focused on the out-of-town market.
• Birmingham Net Stock Absorption, Summer 2011  (PDF 152KB)
  2011 has exhibited a modest but steady improvement in overall market conditions in the Birmingham office market. Demand remains sluggish across most UK regional office markets but the Birmingham CBD recorded its highest quarterly take-up for nine months.
• Leeds Net Stock Absorption, Summer 2011  (PDF 399KB)
  As predicted in our previous publication, Leeds has seen a strong upswing in absorption in the first half of 2011. Total absorption rose by 141,482 sq ft, the largest increase in offi ce occupancy for four years.
• Manchester Net Stock Absorption, Summer 2011  (PDF 412KB)
  Occupation levels increased by 147,492 sq ft across all size bands meaning that total absorption of offi ce space over the past two years has reached an impressive 527,996 sq ft. 83.1% of office space in Manchester’s CBD is now occupied.
• South East Offices Snapshot, July 2011 (827KB)
  Thames Valley take-up substantially down quarter on quarter. Pronounced shortage of major deals with none reported above 15,000 sq ft.

Industrial

• Global Office Real Estate Review - Second Half 2010 (PDF 1.11MB)
  The Colliers Second Half 2010 Global Industrial report is now available. This report features 150 industrial markets around the world making it one of the most comprehensive publications of its kind.
• Bristol Industrial Review, Spring 2009 (PDF 358KB)
  Bristol's location at the axis of the M4/M5 interchange, combined with its reputation as the leading commercial centre in the South West ensures that there is plenty of activity in the industrial property market.
• Midlands Industrial Review, Spring 2009 (PDF 367KB)
  With excellent communications and drive times allowing for access to almost anywhere in the UK, the Midlands will remain the nations big shed capital.

Retail

• UK Shopping Centre Development Pipeline, Autumn 2011 (PDF 767KB)
  Only three shopping centres completed in 2011 – the lowest annual number of new developments seen in many years.
• Footfall Focus, Autumn 2011 (PDF 1.35MB)
  High street footfall has fallen, on average, by more than 10% in just three years (excluding Central London).
• Great Britain Retail, Autumn 2011 (PDF 456KB)
  Despite a positive start to the year in terms of sales volumes and footfall (albeit largely generated by the lure of heavy discounting), the fortunes of the UK retail market appear to have taken a turn for the worse in recent months.
• National Retail Barometer, Summer 2011 (PDF 610KB)
  UK retail vacancy rates have fallen for the second consecutive half year. At April 2011, 13.3% of units across our sample of 15 UK towns and cities were empty, down from 13.7% at October 2010.
• Rob Fay shares his views on the London retail market (VIDEO)
  Will the Central London retail market’s resilient performance sustain?  Rob Fay, Director at Colliers, comments on the strong performance of the London retail market, against the fragile national picture.
• Central London Retail Health Check, March 2011 (PDF 686KB)
  The proportion of vacant retail units in our sample of 10 Central London retail streets has continued to fall over the past six months, down from 4.4% in July 2010 to 3.5% in January 2011.

Investment

• Real Estate Investment Forecasts, Q4 2011 (PDF 472KB)
  Risk aversion is aff ecting all asset classes with safe haven asset yields falling, including UK gilts. In contrast, eurozone uncertainty has pushed the German bund up to over 2%. UK initial yields fell marginally in October from 6.23 to 6.20 on the IPD monthly index. UK property capital value is being supported by eurozone instability.
• Property Pricing Survey, November 2011 (PDF 711KB)
  According to November’s pricing survey, property continued to be a “buy” with focus mainly on the South East and Central London. Selling remained very selective with some focus on Wales, the North East, the North West and Yorkshire & The Humber.
• Real Estate Investment Forecasts, Q3 2011 (PDF 610KB)
  The European debt crisis continues to buffet sentiment and has the capacity to spawn a global debt crisis. Risk aversion has increased, especially given Washington’s debt ceiling debacle and subsequent downgrade. AAA-rated UK gilts fell from 3.4% at the beginning of July to 2.3% by mid-August.
• Property Pricing Survey, July 2011 (PDF 711KB)
  The July survey showed that property is still a buy with the South East as the most favoured region across all sectors. Selling remained very selective.
• Real Estate Investment Forecasts, Q2 2011 (PDF 398KB)
  Uncertainty has returned to the fore with the Greek debt crisis impacting business confidence and the markets. As the PIIGS situation deepens, UK commercial property should attract funds seeking a ‘safe haven’.
• Real Estate Investment Forecasts, Q1 2011 (PDF 475KB)
  Despite the appearance of relative price stability with little change in capital values over Q1 2011, the UK property investment market remains highly stressed. Demand for institutional grade assets is outstripping supply by a wide margin.

Healthcare

• Care Homes Review, Autumn 2011 (PDF 2.73 MB)
  In H1 2011 we find ourselves in unusual circumstances – local authority fee cuts and the Southern Cross debacle. Our reported statistically robust KPIs, which we weight by the number of beds and apply a two year rolling average, are masking what is happening in the healthcare market.
• Specialist Care Homes Review, Autumn 2011 (PDF 139 KB)
  According to our specialist KPI analysis, the effect of the government and local authority funding cuts to the specialist care sector is not yet feeding through to our weighted KPI statistics. However, examination of the non-weighted KPI data suggests that despite increasing acuity of care, wage costs and real fees have not made an impact on profit margins despite a marginal fall in occupancy levels.
• Care Homes Review, Spring 2011 (PDF 1.22 MB)
  Operators caring for residents funded by Local Authorities are unlikely to see fee growth keep pace with cost inflation in 2011 or 2012. There are, however, positive opportunities resulting from the austerity measures for private sector operators of high quality care homes.
• Specialist Homes Review, Spring 2011 (PDF 289KB)
  This is the sixth in a regular series of papers that provides in-depth analysis of the specialist care property and business market, focusing on homes that cater for adults with long-term physical and learning disabilities.

Residential

• Residential Data Shot, January 2012 (PDF 168KB)
  2011 saw weak, yet resilient, house prices. Halifax recorded a 1.3% decrease in house prices over the last 12 months, while Nationwide recorded a 1% increase overall for the 12 months to December. What they do agree on is that house prices held up well under pressure exerted by the strains in the wider economy.
• Residential Data Shot, December 2011 (PDF 165KB)
  The UK housing market in 2011 has been a polarised one. House prices have fallen across the regions, whereas in London and the South East house prices have soared, especially in the Central London super prime luxury end of the market. London’s outperformance would not have happened without the strength of interest from Asian buyers.
• Residential Data Shot, November 2011 (PDF 167KB)
  During 2010-2011, only 121,000 new homes were built and house building levels in the UK is at their lowest levels since World War II. The government has announced its housing strategy to support the delivery of new homes, support choice and quality for tenants and to tackle the empty homes issue.
• Residential Data Shot, October 2011 (PDF 181KB)
  London has seen a buoyant level of investment in commercial property compared to the Eurozone nations due to the uncertainty around the sovereign debt crisis and the knock-on effects that could happen as a consequence of a Greek default.
• Residential Data Shot, Septemer 2011 (PDF 86KB)
  With the London residential market outperforming the wider UK residential market, it is easy to lose focus on what is happening elsewhere in the rest of the UK.
• Residential Data Shot, August 2011 (PDF 181KB)
  The London residential market continues to heat up. Rental levels are rising due to the increasing number of people who are unable to afford mortgage prices being forced to rent. The Department of Communities and Local Government reported recently that one in six homes in the UK is privately rented.
• Residential Data Shot, July 2011 (PDF 241KB)
  London continues to defy the rest of the UK housing market trends, which point towards weakening house prices and falling sales transaction volumes. A recent BBC article indicates that there is a correlation between the levels of manufacturing in an area and falling house prices
• Residential Data Shot, June 2011 (PDF 162KB)
  In the current UK residential market, there is very little development activity and very little mortgage finance available for low LTV borrowers. The UK government has taken steps to increase the number of developments and to make mortgage finance more readily available.

Hotel

• Hotels Snapshot, H1 2011 (PDF 1.95 MB)
  After its deepest recession for over 60 years, the UK saw some signs of stability returning in the 1st half of 2011. Nevertheless, in certain areas concern remains. Banks continue to be reluctant to lend on business-friendly terms despite the historically low base rate of 0.5% since March 2009, whilst inflation remains persistently above the Bank of England’s target of 2.0%.
• Hotels Snapshot, H2 2010 (PDF 849KB)
  Those banks that lent the most into the hotel sector at the height of the market are those less willing or able to lend into the sector at present. Those that took a more cautious view to hotel lending during the period between 2004 to 2007 are now seeing this as an opportunity to lend to the strongest hotels through attempting to expose any breakdown in a customer’s current banking relationship.
• Hotels Snapshot, H1 2009 (PDF 859KB)
  In many cases leisure based trade is up on the previous year. This undoubtedly is due to the effect of a weaker pound against the euro, coupled with the general economic uncertainty, which is resulting in holidaymakers choosing the perceived value for money offered by UK hotels
.

Speciality

• Global Premier Streets and Destinations, March 2011 (PDF 1.59MB)
  What makes the leading global city streets such compelling and enduringly successful destinations? In this paper we explore a cross-section of the top global retail-led streets and identify the essential ingredients that contribute to their attractiveness as destinations, including the built environment, the range of shops and the mix of culture, leisure and entertainment.
• Caravan Park sector overview, February 2011 (PDF 1.5MB)
  The economic downturn has meant that caravan sale results have been volatile over the last few years so we anticipated mixed results from the survey. Overall, it would seem that sales are about on a par with 2009, with the majority (37%) of the sample reporting the same number of sales by volume. Almost as many operators reported a decrease as an increase in sales.